Races · house · 2022 · Iowa

house · open seat

Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks

← Hawaii house Iowa house →

Likely RR +10.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% Bohannan (D)
96% Miller-Meeks (R)
Win probability
Christina Bohannan4% (D)
Mariannette Miller-Meeks96% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +10.3
80% CIR+22.4 → D+1.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +10.3 · 80% CI R+22.4 → D+1.6
Actual result R+6.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.4 (10th pctile) to D+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +10.3

80% CI: R +22.4 → D +1.6 · win prob 4%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+6.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RMariannette Miller-Meeks0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DChristina Bohannan0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Mariannette Miller-MeeksH8IA02043 ↗

Receipts

$4.9M

Disburse

$5.0M

Cash on hand

$328.3K

Debts

Top industries

Education$14.5K

Casinos / gambling$6.4K

Top contributors

ESTES COMPANY$11.6K

RCBOE$11.6K

COTTINGHAM & BUTLER$8.7K

AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$8.7K

IOWA 80 GROUP$8.1K

Christina BohannanH2IA02111 ↗

Receipts

$3.2M

Disburse

$3.2M

Cash on hand

$29.7K

Debts

Top industries

Education$117.1K

Computers / electronics$8.9K

Lawyers / law firms$8.6K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$102.3K

BH EQUITIES$12.5K

UNIV OF IOWA$9.6K

MICROSOFT$8.9K

UCSF$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$5.4M

D side

$216.6K · 4%

R side

$5.2M · 96%

Top spender

OPPORTUNITY MATTERS…

For / against split

For Bohannan $13.34

Against Miller-Meeks $216.6K

Against Bohannan $1.3M

For Miller-Meeks $3.9M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	R	$1.7M	32%	for Mariannette Miller-Meeks
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$1.6M	29%	against Christina Bohannan
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PAC	R	$616.4K	11%	for Mariannette Miller-Meeks
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$559.0K	10%	for Mariannette Miller-Meeks
HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PAC	R	$180.1K	3%	for Mariannette Miller-Meeks
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUND	R	$26.3K	0%	against Christina Bohannan
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.	R	$9.6K	0%	against Christina Bohannan
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$13.34	0%	for Christina Bohannan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R3

Likely R2

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Oct 4

DDHQ

Safe R

Sep 5

The Economist

Lean R

Sep 27

FiveThirtyEight

Likely R

Nov 7

Inside Elections

Lean R

Aug 31

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks