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Races · house · 2022 · California
house · open seat

Rudy Salas vs David Valadao

← California houseCalifornia house →
Lean RR +2.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
33% Salas (D)
67% Valadao (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +2.6 · 80% CI R+14.6 → D+9.4
Actual result David G Valadao +3.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 67% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.6 (10th pctile) to D+9.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 67% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.6
80% CI: R +14.6 → D +9.4 · win prob 33%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultDavid G Valadao +3.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDavid Valadao0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRudy Salas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20
David ValadaoH2CA20094 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$48.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$25.4K
Electric utilities$19.4K
Pharma / health products$8.7K
Casinos / gambling$6.4K
Top contributors
PG&E$19.4K
GRANVILLE HOMES$13.6K
PHOENIX MANAGEMENT$10.8K
MLU SERVICES$10.8K
YUROSEK FARMING COMPANY, LLC$10.8K
Rudy SalasH2CA21233 ↗
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$14.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$15.1K
Computers / electronics$12.3K
Health professionals$8.7K
Top contributors
STATE OF CALIFORNIA$15.1K
APPLE INC$12.3K
KAISER PERMANENTE$10.0K
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$8.7K
QPRIME$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$31.8M
D side
$25.5M · 80%
R side
$6.4M · 20%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Salas $9.3M
Against Valadao $16.1M
Against Salas $5.6M
For Valadao $742.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$14.4M45%against David Valadao
DCCCD$9.0M28%for Rudy Salas
NRCCR$4.0M12%against Rudy Salas
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.9M6%against Rudy Salas
VPPD$1.3M4%against David Valadao
VALLEY WORKS ACTION FUNDD$200.0K1%for Rudy Salas
COMMUNITIES FOR A NEW CALIFORNIA C4D$172.6K1%for Rudy Salas
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.R$115.5K0%for David Valadao

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Dec 20
DDHQ
Lean R
Oct 16
The Economist
Tossup
Sep 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks