Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

Jim Costa vs Michael Maher

← California house California house →

Tilt DD +1.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
60% Costa (D)
40% Maher (R)
Win probability
Jim Costa60% (D)
Michael Maher40% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +1.5
80% CIR+10.5 → D+13.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +1.5 · 80% CI R+10.5 → D+13.5
Actual result D+8.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 60% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.5 (10th pctile) to D+13.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 60% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +1.5

80% CI: R +10.5 → D +13.5 · win prob 60%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+8.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJim Costa0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMichael Maher0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Jim CostaH4CA20082 ↗

Receipts

$2.0M

Disburse

$2.1M

Cash on hand

$389.1K

Debts

Top industries

Education$8.7K

Crop production$7.3K

Top contributors

FORHAN COMPANY$11.6K

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY COLLEGE$8.7K

FAGUNDES DAIRY$8.3K

CALIFORNIA STRATEGIES$7.8K

JOSEPH GALLO FARMS$7.3K

Michael MaherOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$311.8K

Disburse

$309.6K

Cash on hand

$2.2K

Debts

$75.7K

Top industries

Real estate$11.6K

Crop production$6.9K

Lawyers / law firms$5.8K

Internet$2.9K

Top contributors

PAYNTER REALTY & INVESTMENTS INC.$11.6K

3 RIVERS TRUCKING$8.7K

RICHARD SPENCER ENTERPRISES$5.8K

AVION LAW$5.8K

MICHAEL JACKSON FARMS$4.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$33.1K

D side

$33.1K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

VALLEY WORKS ACTION…

For / against split

For Costa $33.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
VALLEY WORKS ACTION FUND	D	$32.3K	98%	for Jim Costa
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	D	$664.81	2%	for Jim Costa
WE VOTE - NOSOTROS VOTAMOS - PPAMM COMMITTEE	D	$122.43	0%	for Jim Costa
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Jim Costa

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Dec 20

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Sep 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks