Races · house · 2020 · Iowa

house · open seat

Rita Hart vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks

← Iowa house Iowa house →

Likely DD +6.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
87% Hart (D)
13% Miller-Meeks (R)
Win probability
Rita Hart87% (D)
Mariannette Miller-Meeks13% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.6
80% CIR+5.4 → D+18.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.6 · 80% CI R+5.4 → D+18.6
Actual result R+0.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 87% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.4 (10th pctile) to D+18.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 87% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.6

80% CI: R +5.4 → D +18.6 · win prob 87%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+0.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DRita Hart0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMariannette Miller-Meeks0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Rita HartH0IA02156 ↗

Receipts

$4.3M

Disburse

$4.1M

Cash on hand

$118.6K

Debts

Top industries

Education$44.4K

Securities & investment$15.4K

Real estate$11.8K

Govt employees$9.2K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF IOWA$44.4K

KNAPP PROPERTIES$11.8K

STATE OF IOWA$9.2K

Q PRIME$8.4K

THE CARLYLE GROUP$8.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$18.6M

D side

$257.8K · 1%

R side

$18.3M · 99%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Hart $257.8K

Against Hart $18.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$10.4M	56%	against Rita Hart
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$7.3M	39%	against Rita Hart
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.	R	$610.0K	3%	against Rita Hart
NEA ADVOCACY FUND	D	$255.1K	1%	for Rita Hart
JDCA PAC	D	$1.5K	0%	for Rita Hart

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D1

Lean D2

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Nov 1

The Economist

Likely D

Oct 1

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks