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Races · house · 2020 · Iowa
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Cindy Axne vs David Young

Safe DD +20.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Axne (D)
1% Young (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.4 · 80% CI D+8.4 → D+32.4
Actual result D+1.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.4 (10th pctile) to D+32.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.4
80% CI: D +8.4D +32.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+1.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 74 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
74Axne · 100%
DCindy Axne74 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials46
Federal 11State 29Local 6
Other22
Organizations6
RDavid Young0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBryan Holder0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
David YoungH4IA03115 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$88.3K
Debts
$0
No industry data.
No contributor data.
Cindy AxneH8IA03124 ↗
Receipts
$6.3M
Disburse
$6.3M
Cash on hand
$19.5K
Debts
$24.6K
Internet$28.6K
Education$21.0K
Real estate$17.2K
GOOGLE$18.2K
KNAPP PROPERTIES$17.2K
PROCTOR LANE$16.8K
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$12.4K
CENTENE$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$12.0M
D side
$9.5M · 79%
R side
$2.6M · 21%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Axne $10.3K
Against Young $9.5M
Against Axne $2.5M
For Young $94.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$3.7M31%against David Young
DCCCD$3.4M29%against David Young
EDF ACTION VOTESD$1.5M12%against David Young
NRCCR$1.1M9%against Cindy Axne
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$797.0K7%against Cindy Axne
WOMEN VOTE!D$768.0K6%against David Young
AMERICAS PACR$508.8K4%against Cindy Axne
INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICER$59.9K0%for David Young
PRIORITIES FOR IOWA POLITICAL FUNDR$40.0K0%against Cindy Axne
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$8.1K0%for Cindy Axne

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D4
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Nov 1
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements74 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks