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Races · house · 2020 · Iowa
house · open seat

Abby Finkenauer vs Ashley Hinson

← Hawaii houseIowa house →
Likely DD +5.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
83% Finkenauer (D)
17% Hinson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +5.6 · 80% CI R+6.4 → D+17.6
Actual result R+2.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 83% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.4 (10th pctile) to D+17.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 83% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.6
80% CI: R +6.4 → D +17.6 · win prob 83%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+2.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 74 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
74Finkenauer · 100%
DAbby Finkenauer74 endorsers
Most notable · Barack Obama · former president of the United States (2009–2017), former senator from Illinois (2005–2008)
Elected officials46
Federal 11State 29Local 6
Other22
Organizations6
RAshley Hinson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Abby FinkenauerH8IA01094 ↗
Receipts
$5.9M
Disburse
$5.9M
Cash on hand
$55.0K
Debts
$9.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$11.1M
D side
$286.0K · 3%
R side
$10.8M · 97%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Finkenauer $286.0K
Against Finkenauer $10.8M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$7.3M66%against Abby Finkenauer
NRCCR$2.8M25%against Abby Finkenauer
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$686.1K6%against Abby Finkenauer
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF OB-GYNS PAC (OB-GYN PAC)D$178.9K2%for Abby Finkenauer
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$80.1K1%for Abby Finkenauer

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D2
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 1
The Economist
Likely D
Oct 1
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements74 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks