Races · Governor · 2026 · TN

Governor · open seat

Jerri Green vs Marsha Blackburn

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Safe R — · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 4 markets Last poll 276d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

safe-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +33.1

80% CI: R +50.6 → R +15.6 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +26.1

80% CI R +27.9 → R +16.6

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +18.5

80% CI R +22.0 → R +15.0

CV MAE 2.74

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +33.1

80% CI R +50.6 → R +15.6

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:2 of 2 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
8/7/2025	Quantus Insights	1.00	R	600	±3.5	RV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 276d old Poll was fielded 276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.2pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.2pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Jerri Green 28.0	poll arch
8/7/2025	Quantus Insights	1.00	R	600	±3.5	RV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+4 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 276d old Poll was fielded 276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.2pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.2pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	John Rose 43.0 · Jerri Green 27.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 1 total

Jerri Green (D)

1 endorsement · source

Elected officials (1)

Lee Harris — mayor of Shelby County (2018–present) and former minority leader of the Tennessee Senate (2015–2018) from the 29th district (2015–2018) [ 35 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Sep 11	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Aug 28	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Sep 4	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 9 months ago (8/7/2025) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Safe R via markets