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Races · Governor · 2024 · New Hampshire
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Governor · open seat

Joyce Craig vs Kelly Ayotte

← North Dakota GovernorUtah Governor →
Likely RR +5.7 forecast· 13 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
17% Craig (D)
83% Ayotte (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +5.7 · 80% CI R+17.7 → D+6.3
Actual result R+9.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 83% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+5.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.7 (10th pctile) to D+6.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 83% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +5.7
80% CI: R +17.7 → D +6.3 · win prob 17%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used13
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+9.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

354045505560CRAIG 47.6AYOTTE 46.8AUG '23MAR '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 13 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2, 24Dartmouth College587 · LVNEUTRAL——58 · 40
Nov 1, 24University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire2,814 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned44 · 48
Oct 28, 24Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College2,791 · LVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned46 · 49
Oct 25, 24Praecones Analytica622 · RVNEUTRAL——48 · 52
Oct 22, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling915 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 50
Oct 22, 24UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov600 · LVD-LEAND +3.46 tracked+3.0d lean43 · 45
Oct 17, 24Dartmouth College+12,196 · RVNEUTRAL——51 · 46
Oct 9, 24UMass Lowell/YouGovFor · UMass Lowell/YouGov600 · LVD-LEAND +3.46 tracked+3.0d lean41 · 42
Oct 1, 24Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College2,104 · LVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned44 · 47
Sep 15, 24University of New Hampshire+2For · University of New Hampshire1,695 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned47 · 46
Sep 11, 24Saint Anselm College+2For · Saint Anselm College2,241 · LVNEUTRALR +1.74 tracked+1.0aligned43 · 46
Nov 12, 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling917 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 43
Aug 10, 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling837 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned37 · 46
· 13 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Ayotte · 100%5
RKelly Ayotte5 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Sununu · Governor of New Hampshire (2017–2025)
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 2Local 0
Organizations1
DJoyce Craig0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Tilt R1
Lean R2
CNalysis
Tilt R
Oct 31
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 14
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 25
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 13deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks