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Races · Governor · 2024 · Utah
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Governor · open seat

Brian King vs Spencer Cox

← New Hampshire GovernorVermont Governor →
Safe RR +33.3 forecast· 6 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% King (D)
99% Cox (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.3 · 80% CI R+45.3 → R+21.3
Actual result Spencer CoxDeidre Henderson +24.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.3 (10th pctile) to R+21.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.3
80% CI: R +45.3 → R +21.3 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used6
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultSpencer CoxDeidre Henderson +24.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

051015202530354045505560COX 47.8KING 23.9WILLIAMS 3.3LATHAM 3.1AUG '24SEP '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 6 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive695 · LVNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean26 · 43
Oct 18HarrisX+2For · Deseret News813 · RVNEUTRALR +0.465 tracked-1.9aligned19 · 51
Oct 6Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive539 · LVNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean26 · 54
Sep 27Public Policy Polling+2For · The Salt Lake Tribune612 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy32 · 45
Sep 3Lighthouse Research518 · RVNEUTRAL——27 · 48
Aug 8HarrisX+2For · Deseret News800 · RVNEUTRALR +0.465 tracked-1.9aligned17 · 56

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
1King · 25%
Cox · 75%3
RSpencer Cox3 endorsers
Most notable · Utah Republican Party
Other2
Organizations1
DBrian King1 endorser
Most notable · Utah Democratic Party
Organizations1
LRobert Latham0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ITommy Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Aug 16
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 12
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jul 11
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 13
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks