Pollster · 90 of 1053

Trafalgar Group

GRADE A− NEUTRAL LEAN
↗ official site ↗ methodology ↗ Wikipedia
Polls scored
19
Mean error
3.7 pt
Signed bias
R+2.14
Aggregation weight
1.00
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
70
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 50
Verification rate 47
Sample size median 100
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 69
Pollster vs editorial consensus
r-lean

Across 7 graded races, Trafalgar Group's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -4.1pp. That's a measurable R-lean vs the consensus.

Mean delta
-4.1pp
Median delta
-4.0pp
Std-dev
1.8pp
N graded
7
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2022-nyus-senate-special-2020-azus-senate-2020-mi
Recent activity
Total all time
19
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 4/27/2025 (377d ago) · status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2018 #19 / 25 3 5.43 pt R+4.22 pp
Recent polls