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Races · Governor · 2022 · New York
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Kathy Hochul vs Lee Zeldin

← Nevada GovernorOhio Governor →
Likely DD +14.2 forecast· 85 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Hochul (D)
1% Zeldin (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +14.2 · 80% CI D+2.2 → D+26.2
Actual result Kathy Hochul Antonio Delgado +7.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+9) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.2 (10th pctile) to D+26.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.2
80% CI: D +2.2 → D +26.2 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used85
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultKathy Hochul Antonio Delgado +7.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

Latest poll · 13 candidates

This race has 13 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.

DAndrew Cuomo56.1%
DAntonio Delgado51.4%
DKathy Hochul50.2%
DEMKathy C. Hochul49.3%
RLee Zeldin43.3%
DJumaane Williams43.0%
DTom Suozzi43.0%
REPLee M. Zeldin42.4%
RAlison Esposito41.6%
RHarry Wilson34.0%
RAndrew Giuliani33.0%
RRob Astorino31.0%
LLarry Sharpe7.0%

All polls · 85 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned49 · 41
Nov 5, 22ActiVote+2For · ActiVote260 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned55 · 45
Nov 2, 22Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling826 · RVR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean49 · 44
Nov 1, 22Patriot Polling826 · unknownR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean—
Oct 30, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 44
Oct 30, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,198 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 48
Oct 30, 22Trafalgar Group+11,198 · LVR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean55 · 45
Oct 28, 22KAConsultingFor · Politico501 · LVR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean46 · 45
Oct 27, 22Data for Progress+1818 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned54 · 42
Oct 27, 22Data for Progress+1818 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 41
Oct 25, 22Slingshot Strategies1,000 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 42
Oct 24, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs593 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean54 · 43
Oct 24, 22Slingshot Strategies1,000 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Oct 23, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 44
Oct 19, 22Bold Decision1,204 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 37
Oct 18, 22co/efficientFor · co/efficient1,056 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean45 · 46
Oct 18, 22YouGov796 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean—
Oct 17, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA702 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned47 · 41
Oct 17, 22co/efficient1,056 · unknownR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean—
Oct 17, 22Bold Decision1,204 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Oct 15, 22Quinnipiac University+2For · Quinnipiac University1,617 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned50 · 46
Oct 13, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College707 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned52 · 41
Oct 9, 22Schoen Cooperman Research824 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Oct 5, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College900 · LVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned52 · 44
Oct 2, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,087 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean45 · 43
Oct 1, 22Trafalgar Group1,087 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean—
Sep 24, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College655 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned54 · 37
Sep 22, 22McLaughlin & Associates800 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy—
Sep 12, 22Data for Progress+1931 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned52 · 39
Sep 10, 22Data for Progress931 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned—
Sep 8, 22Public Policy Polling+1510 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy54 · 39
Sep 7, 22Public Policy Polling500 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy—
Sep 6, 22co/efficient1,194 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean49 · 43
Sep 5, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50 · 35
Aug 31, 22The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage1,091 · LVR-LEAN——48 · 43
Aug 20, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA715 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned55 · 31
Jul 27, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 35
Jul 27, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College806 · LVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned53 · 39
Jun 19, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA2,152 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned52 · 28
Jun 19, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA2,152 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned55 · 28
Jun 19, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA2,152 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned56 · 30
Jun 19, 22SurveyUSA+2For · SurveyUSA2,152 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned54 · 29
Jun 12, 22Siena College+1802 · RVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned46
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 32
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——54 · 35
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——54 · 35
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 32
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 34
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 36
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 36
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 36
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 37
May 19, 22John Zogby Strategies1,007 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 37
May 2, 22Emerson College+11,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned16
Apr 20, 22Siena College+2For · NBC New York806 · RVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned40
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 34
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 34
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 30
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 31
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 33
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 35
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——41 · 34
Apr 9, 22John Zogby Strategies1,001 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 36
Apr 3, 22Data for Progress+1947 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 36
Apr 3, 22Data for Progress+1947 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 41
Mar 23, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College804 · RVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned43
Mar 10, 22McLaughlin & Associates+1For · Yorkers800 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy44 · 46
Mar 9, 22Emerson College+2For · The latest Emerson College1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned12
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 33
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 35
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 33
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 34
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 32
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 34
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 35
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 33
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——42 · 34
Mar 2, 22John Zogby Strategies1,003 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 36
Feb 16, 22Siena College+1For · Siena College803 · RVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned47
Jan 23, 22Zogby Analytics869 · LVNEUTRALD +4.03 tracked—44 · 27
Jan 23, 22Zogby Analytics869 · LVNEUTRALD +4.03 tracked—45 · 27
Jan 23, 22Zogby Analytics869 · LVNEUTRALD +4.03 tracked—34 · 31
Jan 23, 22Zogby Analytics869 · LVNEUTRALD +4.03 tracked—34 · 31
Jan 20, 22John Zogby Strategies1,000 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 29
May 19, 21Siena College+1For · Siena College793 · RVNEUTRALD +0.715 tracked+1.2aligned48
· 85 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 13 candidates with no endorsements yet
DKathy Hochul0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLee Zeldin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMKathy C. Hochul0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPLee M. Zeldin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RHarry Wilson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJumaane Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRob Astorino0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAndrew Giuliani0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTom Suozzi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAndrew Cuomo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAntonio Delgado0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAlison Esposito0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LLarry Sharpe0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D3
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 27
Elections Daily
Safe D
Nov 6
FiveThirtyEight
Safe D
Aug 25
Inside Elections
Likely D
Nov 2
RealClearPolitics
Tossup
Oct 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified73 / 85deterministic
Polls flagged2needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks