Kathy Hochul vs Lee Zeldin

Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.

Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.

Sample size of 260 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.1pt — wider than typical.

Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. Notes: field window 90d

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.

Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Methodology not disclosed publicly; declined to participate in AAPOR Transparency Initiative. Included for transparency rather than weight-zeroing — many forecasters still include their polls — but the methodology opacity is worth surfacing. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

Poll was fielded 1287 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 7 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt.

Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 1,617 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.

Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 1315 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 1335 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.

Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1342 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1382 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 2,152 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 2,152 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 2,152 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Sample size of 2,152 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.

Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Poll was fielded 1427 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1451 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 16.0% (expected ~100; n=1 cands, floor=25). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.

Poll was fielded 1468 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Commissioned by NBC New York, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1491 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1497 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.

Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 12.0% (expected ~100; n=1 cands, floor=25). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.

Poll was fielded 1522 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Commissioned by The latest Emerson College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.

Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.

Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1529 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1543 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.

Poll was fielded 1570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Poll was fielded 1816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Poll was fielded 1816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.

Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.

Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.

Poll was fielded 1920 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.

auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.

Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.