Pollster · 6 of 1053

Noble Predictive Insights

GRADE A− NEUTRAL LEAN
↗ Wikipedia
Polls scored
41
Mean error
3.0 pt
Signed bias
D+2.99
Aggregation weight
1.00

Pollster vs prediction market

From 41 race-polls · 11 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
59.0%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+1.3 pt
Average move within 24h of release
Market alignment
+3.1 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Noble Predictive Insights's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
79
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 50
Verification rate 90
Sample size median 91
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 79
Pollster vs editorial consensus
d-lean

Across 15 graded races, Noble Predictive Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.9pp. That's a measurable D-lean vs the consensus.

Mean delta
+2.9pp
Median delta
+2.0pp
Std-dev
5.2pp
N graded
15
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2026-azus-governor-2026-azus-governor-2026-nv
Recent activity
Total all time
41
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
6
Last 180d
6

Last poll 3/13/2026 (57d ago) · status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2024 #7 / 26 4 2.99 pt D+2.99 pp
Recent polls