Pollster · 6 of 1769

Noble Predictive Insights

GRADE AWEIGHT TIER T2NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed

↗ official site ↗ methodology ↗ Wikipedia

Polls scored

Mean error

3.0 pt

Signed bias

D+2.99

Aggregation weight

1.34

Pollster vs prediction market

From 77 race-polls · 21 matched markets

Pre-poll P(D) (avg)

63.7%

Market price the day before each poll dropped

Post-poll market shift

+0.0 pt

Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)

Market alignment

+2.8 pt

Net direction markets moved toward Noble Predictive Insights's read

Composite quality score

0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components

of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight67

Verification rate60

Sample size median79

Citation rate82

Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured

Rater alignment75

Pollster vs editorial consensus

d-lean

Across 26 graded races, Noble Predictive Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +3.4pp. That's a measurable D-lean vs the consensus.

Mean delta

+3.4pp

Median delta

+3.0pp

Std-dev

4.4pp

N graded

Sample races (links to detail):

us-governor-2026-az us-governor-2026-az us-governor-2026-az

Recent activity

Total all time

Last 30d

Last 90d

Last 180d

Last poll 5/14/2026 (53d ago)· status active

Per-cycle debrief appearances

Cycle	Rank	Polls	MAE	Signed bias
2024	#7 / 26	4	2.99 pt	D+2.99 pp

Recent polls