Races · Governor · 2026 · NV

Governor · open seat

Aaron Ford vs Joe Lombardo

← NM Governor NY Governor →

Lean D D +2.2 · 176 days to election · 8 polls · 4 markets Last poll 58d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 76% R · market gap 34pp

lean-d · high-tipping · stable · uncertainty-medium · market-disagreement-large

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +3.0

80% CI: R +7.4 → D +1.4 · win prob 24%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	8
Days to election	181
Residual σ	3.44pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +2.5

80% CI R +7.4 → D +5.2

CV MAE 7.21

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +1.6

80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.0

CV MAE 1.29

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +3.0

80% CI R +7.4 → D +1.4

CV MAE 3.44

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 8 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:8 of 8 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/13/2026	Noble Predictive Insights	1.00	—(D+3.0)	845	±3.4	RV	4 scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Joe Lombardo 39.0 · Aaron Ford 38.0	poll arch
3/13/2026	Noble Predictive Insights	1.00	—(D+3.0)	845	±3.4	RV	flagged on verification4 scored polls+1 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Irina Hansen 32.0 · Aaron Ford 37.0	poll arch
3/13/2026	Noble Predictive Insights	1.00	—(D+3.0)	845	±3.4	RV	flagged on verification4 scored polls+1 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Matthew Winterhawk 31.0 · Aaron Ford 37.0	poll arch
3/13/2026	Noble Predictive Insights	1.00	—(D+3.0)	845	±3.4	RV	flagged on verification4 scored polls+1 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 66.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Jose Zalaya 30.0 · Aaron Ford 36.0	poll arch
2/17/2026	Hart Research	1.00	L	800	—	LV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 82d old Poll was fielded 82 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Joe Lombardo 46.0 · Aaron Ford 43.0	poll arch
11/18/2025	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	800	±3.4	RV	173d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 173d old Poll was fielded 173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Joe Lombardo 41.0 · Aaron Ford 41.0	poll arch
10/13/2025	Noble Predictive Insights	1.00	—(D+3.0)	766	±3.5	RV	4 scored polls209d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 209d old Poll was fielded 209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. newspaper-sponsored: Channel 13 Las Vegas News KTNV Commissioned by Channel 13 Las Vegas News KTNV, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Joe Lombardo 40.0 · Aaron Ford 37.0	poll arch
5/19/2023	Vote TXT	1.00	—	412	±4.7	RV	no scored polls1087d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1087d old Poll was fielded 1087 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Joe Lombardo 51.0 · Aaron Ford 30.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 17 total

Aaron Ford (D)

17 endorsements · source

Elected officials (2)

Daniele Monroe-Moreno — speaker pro tempore of the Nevada Assembly (2023–present) from the 1st district (2016–present) and chair of the Nevada Democratic Party (2023–present) [ 20 ]
Fabian Doñate — state senator from the 10th district (2021–present) [ 23 ]

Organizations / unions (3)

Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 28 ]
Nevada State Education Association — [ 24 ]
[ 25 ] — Education Association [ 25 ]

Other (12)

Catherine Cortez Masto — Nevada (2017–present) [ 18 ]
Cecelia González — state assemblymember from the 16th district (2020–present) [ 20 ]
David Orentlicher — state assemblymember from the 20th district (2020–present) and former member of the Indiana House of Representatives from the 86th district (2002-2008) [ 22 ]
Dina Titus — NV-01 (2009–2011, 2013–present) [ 20 ]
End Citizens United — [ 26 ]
Jacky Rosen — Nevada (2019–present) [ 19 ]
Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 27 ]
Reuben D'Silva — state assemblymember from the 28th district (2022–present) [ 22 ]
Sandra Jauregui — majority leader of the Nevada Assembly from the 41st district (2016–present) [ 22 ]
Selena Torres — state assemblymember from the 3rd district (2019–present) [ 22 ]
Steven Horsford — NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present) [ 20 ]
Susie Lee — NV-03 (2019–present) [ 21 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Sep 11	+2.2	0.0	+2.2
Inside Elections	Tilt R	Aug 28	+2.2	-1.3	+3.4
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Sep 4	+2.2	-3.5	+5.7

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/13/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/3/2026 Lean D D+2.2 via polls