Pollster · 454 of 1769

0ptimus

GRADE A+WEIGHT TIER T1NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed

↗ official site ↗ methodology ↗ Wikipedia

Polls scored

Mean error

0.6 pt

Signed bias

R+0.33

Aggregation weight

4.00

Composite quality score

0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components

of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight100

Verification rate8

Sample size median100

Citation rate100

Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured

Rater alignment90

Pollster vs editorial consensus

aligned

Across 6 graded races, 0ptimus's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of -1.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta

-1.3pp

Median delta

-1.5pp

Std-dev

2.6pp

N graded

Sample races (links to detail):

us-senate-2020-sc us-governor-2014-fl us-governor-2014-fl

Recent activity

Total all time

Last 30d

Last 90d

Last 180d

Last poll 11/1/2020 (2073d ago)· status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances

Cycle	Rank	Polls	MAE	Signed bias
2014	#1 / 21	3	0.98 pt	R+0.93 pp

Recent polls