Races · Governor · 2014 · FL

Governor · open seat

Charlie Crist vs Rick Scott

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Tilt R — · 132 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 132 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 132 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:132 of 132 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/2/2014	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1834	±2.3	unknown	bias D+2.2pt4207d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,834 Sample size of 1,834 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1198	±2.8	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	2559	±2.0	unknown	4 scored polls4207d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=2,559 Sample size of 2,559 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 10.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	817	±3.4	unknown	4207d oldtracks editorial consensus 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 · Adrian Wyllie 7.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	Zogby Analytics	1.00	—(D+4.0)	688	±3.8	unknown	3 scored polls4209d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1795	±2.7	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,795 Sample size of 1,795 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	SEA Polling	1.00	—	1300	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4210d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	SEA Polling	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4211d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 · Adrian Wyllie 5.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	508	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4211d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	850	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4212d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 36.0 · Charlie Crist 36.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	817	±3.4	unknown	4213d oldtracks editorial consensus 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/26/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	4893	±1.4	unknown	4 scored polls4214d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4214d old Poll was fielded 4214 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=4,893 Sample size of 4,893 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 12.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	861	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4216d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	5422	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=5,422 Sample size of 5,422 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	984	±3.1	unknown	4220d oldtracks editorial consensus 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 · Adrian Wyllie 7.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±4.9	unknown	3 scored polls4221d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	4701	±1.5	unknown	4 scored polls4221d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=4,701 Sample size of 4,701 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 12.0	poll arch
10/17/2014	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	1855	±2.3	unknown	bias D+2.2pt4223d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 4223d old Poll was fielded 4223 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,855 Sample size of 1,855 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/17/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1114	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4223d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4223d old Poll was fielded 4223 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	566	±4.2	unknown	4227d oldtracks editorial consensus 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 · Adrian Wyllie 7.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	610	±4.0	LV	4227d oldlikely-voter screen+1 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 9.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1023	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4228d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	781	±3.2	unknown	no scored polls4228d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	6384	±1.3	unknown	4 scored polls4228d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=6,384 Sample size of 6,384 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 13.0	poll arch
10/11/2014	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	3128	±1.8	unknown	bias D+2.2pt4229d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 4229d old Poll was fielded 4229 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,128 Sample size of 3,128 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	471	±4.7	unknown	4232d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 · Adrian Wyllie 10.0	poll arch
10/6/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	594	±4.1	unknown	4234d oldtracks editorial consensus 4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	6494	±1.2	unknown	4 scored polls4235d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=6,494 Sample size of 6,494 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 13.0	poll arch
10/4/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1161	±2.9	unknown	4236d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4236d old Poll was fielded 4236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	5689	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=5,689 Sample size of 5,689 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
9/29/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	588	±4.1	unknown	4241d oldtracks editorial consensus 4241d old Poll was fielded 4241 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
9/28/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	3356	±1.7	unknown	4 scored polls4242d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4242d old Poll was fielded 4242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=3,356 Sample size of 3,356 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 11.0	poll arch
9/22/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	588	±4.1	unknown	4248d oldtracks editorial consensus 4248d old Poll was fielded 4248 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
9/22/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	991	±3.1	unknown	4248d oldtracks editorial consensus 4248d old Poll was fielded 4248 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
9/21/2014	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	813	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls4249d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4249d old Poll was fielded 4249 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
9/21/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	6079	±1.3	unknown	4 scored polls4249d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4249d old Poll was fielded 4249 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=6,079 Sample size of 6,079 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 11.0	poll arch
9/15/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	571	±4.2	unknown	4255d oldtracks editorial consensus 4255d old Poll was fielded 4255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 7.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	3660	±1.7	unknown	4 scored polls4256d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=3,660 Sample size of 3,660 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.6pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1000	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4260d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0	poll arch
9/8/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	576	±4.2	unknown	4262d oldtracks editorial consensus 4262d old Poll was fielded 4262 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0 · Adrian Wyllie 3.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	Associated Industries	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4263d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	AIF Political Operations	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4263d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 5.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	818	±3.8	unknown	4263d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
9/7/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	4386	±1.5	unknown	4 scored polls4263d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4263d old Poll was fielded 4263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=4,386 Sample size of 4,386 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 8.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	Mason-Dixon	0.56	R(R+2.4)	625	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.4pt4266d old+1 bias R+2.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	5962	±2.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=5,962 Sample size of 5,962 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
8/31/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	814	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls4270d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4270d old Poll was fielded 4270 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 36.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
8/28/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	580	±4.2	unknown	4273d oldtracks editorial consensus 4273d old Poll was fielded 4273 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
8/24/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	859	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4277d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4277d old Poll was fielded 4277 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Charlie Crist 37.0	poll arch
8/24/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	9333	±1.0	unknown	4 scored polls4277d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4277d old Poll was fielded 4277 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=9,333 Sample size of 9,333 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 9.0	poll arch
8/18/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	564	±4.2	unknown	4283d oldtracks editorial consensus 4283d old Poll was fielded 4283 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	12812	±0.9	unknown	4 scored polls4284d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=12,812 Sample size of 12,812 respondents implies a margin of error around ±0.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
8/13/2014	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	627	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4288d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4288d old Poll was fielded 4288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 35.0	poll arch
8/4/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	576	±4.2	unknown	4297d oldtracks editorial consensus 4297d old Poll was fielded 4297 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
8/3/2014	0ptimus	4.00	—(R+0.6)	4714	±1.5	unknown	4 scored polls4298d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4298d old Poll was fielded 4298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 4.00 Aggregation weight is 4.00 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=4,714 Sample size of 4,714 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
7/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	900	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4302d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4302d old Poll was fielded 4302 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	6873	—	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=6,873 Sample size of 6,873 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 48.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
7/21/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1251	±2.8	unknown	4311d oldtracks editorial consensus 4311d old Poll was fielded 4311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 9.0	poll arch
7/21/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	564	±4.2	unknown	4311d oldtracks editorial consensus 4311d old Poll was fielded 4311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0	poll arch
7/21/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1251	±2.8	unknown	4311d oldtracks editorial consensus 4311d old Poll was fielded 4311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Nan Rich 34.0	poll arch
7/6/2014	Hart/North Star	1.00	—	1202	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4326d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4326d old Poll was fielded 4326 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. newspaper-sponsored: North Star Commissioned by North Star, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Rick Scott 47.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0	poll arch
7/4/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	558	±4.2	unknown	4328d oldtracks editorial consensus 4328d old Poll was fielded 4328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
6/23/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1232	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4339d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4339d old Poll was fielded 4339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 39.0 · Adrian Wyllie 6.0	poll arch
6/23/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	541	±4.3	unknown	4339d oldtracks editorial consensus 4339d old Poll was fielded 4339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
6/11/2014	Cherry Communications	0.63	—(D+3.8)	806	±3.5	unknown	3 scored polls4351d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4351d old Poll was fielded 4351 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 38.0 · Adrian Wyllie 4.0	poll arch
6/10/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	556	±4.2	unknown	4352d oldtracks editorial consensus 4352d old Poll was fielded 4352 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	672	±3.8	unknown	4353d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 42.0	poll arch
6/9/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	672	±3.8	unknown	4353d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4353d old Poll was fielded 4353 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Nan Rich 34.0	poll arch
6/4/2014	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4358d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4358d old Poll was fielded 4358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
6/4/2014	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4358d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4358d old Poll was fielded 4358 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Nan Rich 31.0	poll arch
5/22/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	531	±4.3	unknown	4371d oldtracks editorial consensus 4371d old Poll was fielded 4371 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0	poll arch
5/12/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	554	±4.2	unknown	4381d oldtracks editorial consensus 4381d old Poll was fielded 4381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
5/6/2014	McLaughlin & Associates	1.00	—	800	±3.4	unknown	no scored polls4387d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 38.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1413	±2.6	unknown	4395d oldtracks editorial consensus 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 48.0	poll arch
4/28/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1413	±2.6	unknown	4395d oldtracks editorial consensus 4395d old Poll was fielded 4395 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Nan Rich 36.0	poll arch
4/25/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	907	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4398d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4398d old Poll was fielded 4398 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0 · Adrian Wyllie 5.0	poll arch
4/22/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4401d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4401d old Poll was fielded 4401 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	868	±3.3	unknown	4408d old 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
4/14/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	502	±4.5	unknown	4409d oldtracks editorial consensus 4409d old Poll was fielded 4409 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0	poll arch
4/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	814	±3.1	unknown	4420d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4420d old Poll was fielded 4420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 49.0	poll arch
4/3/2014	Sunshine State News	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4420d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4420d old Poll was fielded 4420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
3/19/2014	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4435d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4435d old Poll was fielded 4435 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
3/19/2014	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	500	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4435d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4435d old Poll was fielded 4435 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Nan Rich 32.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	507	±4.3	unknown	4438d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 33.0 · Charlie Crist 34.0	poll arch
2/1/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	1006	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4481d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4481d old Poll was fielded 4481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0	poll arch
2/1/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	1006	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4481d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4481d old Poll was fielded 4481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Bill Nelson 46.0	poll arch
2/1/2014	University of Florida	1.00	—	1006	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4481d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4481d old Poll was fielded 4481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Nan Rich 36.0	poll arch
1/31/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	808	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4482d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4482d old Poll was fielded 4482 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0 · Adrian Wyllie 3.0	poll arch
1/27/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1565	±2.5	unknown	4486d oldn=1,565+1 4486d old Poll was fielded 4486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,565 Sample size of 1,565 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0	poll arch
1/27/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1565	±2.5	unknown	4486d oldn=1,565+1 4486d old Poll was fielded 4486 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,565 Sample size of 1,565 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Nan Rich 37.0	poll arch
1/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	591	±4.0	unknown	4492d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4492d old Poll was fielded 4492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 43.0	poll arch
1/21/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	591	±4.0	unknown	4492d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4492d old Poll was fielded 4492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Nan Rich 34.0	poll arch
1/20/2014	Hamilton Strategies	1.00	—	700	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls4493d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4493d old Poll was fielded 4493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 44.0 · Charlie Crist 49.0	poll arch
12/8/2013	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	400	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4536d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4536d old Poll was fielded 4536 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 34.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0	poll arch
12/8/2013	Saint Leo University	1.00	—(D+8.5)	400	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls4536d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4536d old Poll was fielded 4536 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 36.0 · Nan Rich 31.0	poll arch
11/26/2013	Fabrizio McLaughlin	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4548d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4548d old Poll was fielded 4548 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 45.0 · Charlie Crist 49.0	poll arch
11/26/2013	Fabrizio McLaughlin	1.00	—	1000	±3.1	unknown	no scored polls4548d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4548d old Poll was fielded 4548 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 46.0 · Bill Nelson 48.0	poll arch
11/17/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1646	±2.4	unknown	4557d oldn=1,646+1 4557d old Poll was fielded 4557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,646 Sample size of 1,646 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0	poll arch
11/17/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1646	±2.4	unknown	4557d oldn=1,646+1 4557d old Poll was fielded 4557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,646 Sample size of 1,646 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Nan Rich 35.0	poll arch
11/10/2013	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	932	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4564d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4564d old Poll was fielded 4564 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Rick Scott 36.0 · Charlie Crist 46.0	poll arch
10/8/2013	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	526	±4.3	unknown	4597d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 4597d old Poll was fielded 4597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
10/8/2013	University of North Florida	0.81	L(D+5.0)	526	±4.3	unknown	4597d oldD+8.6pt vs editors 4597d old Poll was fielded 4597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+8.6pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 43.0 · Nan Rich 28.0	poll arch
9/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	579	±4.1	unknown	4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4606d old Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 50.0	poll arch
9/29/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	579	±4.1	unknown	4606d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4606d old Poll was fielded 4606 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Nan Rich 36.0	poll arch
8/2/2013	St. Pete Polls	1.44	L(D+2.2)	3034	±1.8	unknown	bias D+2.2pt4664d old+2 bias D+2.2pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.2pt. 4664d old Poll was fielded 4664 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,034 Sample size of 3,034 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 13 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 30.0 · Charlie Crist 40.0 · Adrian Wyllie 9.0	poll arch
6/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1176	±2.9	unknown	4711d oldtracks editorial consensus 4711d old Poll was fielded 4711 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Charlie Crist 47.0	poll arch
6/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1176	±2.9	unknown	4711d oldtracks editorial consensus 4711d old Poll was fielded 4711 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Bill Nelson 48.0	poll arch
6/16/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1176	±2.9	unknown	4711d oldtracks editorial consensus 4711d old Poll was fielded 4711 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Nan Rich 36.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±5.4	unknown	4801d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Charlie Crist 52.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4801d oldtracks editorial consensus 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 34.0 · Charlie Crist 50.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	50	±5.4	unknown	n=504801d old+2 n=50 Sample size of 50 respondents implies a margin of error around ±13.9pt — wider than typical. 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Pam Iorio 44.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±5.4	unknown	4801d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Nan Rich 36.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4801d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Alex Sink 45.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4801d oldtracks editorial consensus 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Rick Scott 34.0 · Alex Sink 45.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4801d oldtracks editorial consensus 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Putnam 30.0 · Charlie Crist 49.0	poll arch
3/18/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4801d oldtracks editorial consensus 4801d old Poll was fielded 4801 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Adam Putnam 29.0 · Alex Sink 37.0	poll arch
2/4/2013	Hamilton Strategies	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4843d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4843d old Poll was fielded 4843 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 41.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Charlie Crist 53.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Buddy Dyer 37.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 39.0 · Pam Iorio 43.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Nan Rich 37.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 40.0 · Alex Sink 47.0	poll arch
1/13/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	501	±4.4	unknown	4865d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4865d old Poll was fielded 4865 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Debbie Wasserman Schultz 44.0	poll arch
9/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1548	±2.5	unknown	4998d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 4998d old Poll was fielded 4998 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,548 Sample size of 1,548 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Rick Scott 42.0 · Charlie Crist 45.0	poll arch
7/29/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	871	±3.3	unknown	5033d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5033d old Poll was fielded 5033 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Charlie Crist 44.0	poll arch
6/3/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	642	±3.9	unknown	5089d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5089d old Poll was fielded 5089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 35.0 · Nan Rich 47.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 32.0 · Charlie Crist 55.0	poll arch
12/1/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	700	±3.7	unknown	5274d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5274d old Poll was fielded 5274 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 37.0 · Alex Sink 53.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 38.0 · Charlie Crist 51.0	poll arch
9/25/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	476	±4.5	unknown	5341d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5341d old Poll was fielded 5341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 41.0 · Alex Sink 52.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	848	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 34.0 · Charlie Crist 56.0	poll arch
6/19/2011	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	848	±3.4	unknown	5439d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 5439d old Poll was fielded 5439 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Rick Scott 35.0 · Alex Sink 57.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi