Races · Governor · 2014 · GA

Governor · open seat

Jason Carter vs Nathan Deal

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Tilt R — · 74 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4206d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 74 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 74 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:74 of 74 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	975	±3.1	unknown	4206d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4206d old Poll was fielded 4206 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1500	±2.5	unknown	4207d oldn=1,500 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,500 Sample size of 1,500 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Nathan Deal 51.0 · Jason Carter 45.0 · Andrew Hunt 3.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	1463	±3.0	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	591	±4.1	unknown	4207d oldtracks editorial consensus 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 42.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1743	±3.2	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old+1 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,743 Sample size of 1,743 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 41.0 · Andrew Hunt 1.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	603	±4.0	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4210d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 3.0	poll arch
10/30/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	603	±4.0	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4210d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 50.0 · Jason Carter 46.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1500	±2.5	unknown	4211d oldn=1,500 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,500 Sample size of 1,500 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 46.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	602	±4.0	unknown	4212d oldtracks editorial consensus 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 49.0 · Jason Carter 42.0 · Andrew Hunt 3.0	poll arch
10/28/2014	Monmouth	1.00	—	436	±4.7	unknown	no scored polls4212d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4212d old Poll was fielded 4212 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 42.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	977	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4213d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 49.0 · Jason Carter 43.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	611	±4.0	unknown	4213d oldtracks editorial consensus 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 3.0	poll arch
10/24/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	771	—	unknown	4216d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4216d old Poll was fielded 4216 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 45.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1774	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,774 Sample size of 1,774 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 2.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	1170	±3.6	unknown	no scored polls4217d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 41.0 · Andrew Hunt 6.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	704	±3.7	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	CNN/ORC International	1.00	—	565	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4218d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 48.0 · Andrew Hunt 6.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1000	±2.8	unknown	4219d old 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 45.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	606	±4.1	unknown	4220d oldtracks editorial consensus 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/14/2014	GaPundit.com	1.00	—	1543	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4226d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4226d old Poll was fielded 4226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,543 Sample size of 1,543 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 6.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	563	±4.2	unknown	4227d oldtracks editorial consensus 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 46.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/9/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1000	±3.1	unknown	4231d old 4231d old Poll was fielded 4231 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 45.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
10/6/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	566	±4.2	unknown	4234d oldtracks editorial consensus 4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	895	±3.3	unknown	4235d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 41.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/5/2014	Hickman Analytics	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4235d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 36.0 · Andrew Hunt 9.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1000	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4239d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 49.0 · Jason Carter 43.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	947	±3.2	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1851	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,851 Sample size of 1,851 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 1.0	poll arch
9/22/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	550	±4.3	unknown	4248d oldtracks editorial consensus 4248d old Poll was fielded 4248 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 45.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4254d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 44.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	1167	±2.9	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 40.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	1109	±2.9	unknown	4259d old 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 47.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
9/11/2014	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	884	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4259d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4259d old Poll was fielded 4259 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 43.0 · Jason Carter 42.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
9/8/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	558	±4.2	unknown	4262d oldtracks editorial consensus 4262d old Poll was fielded 4262 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 44.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1900	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,900 Sample size of 1,900 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 39.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
8/25/2014	GaPundit.com	1.00	—	1578	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4276d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4276d old Poll was fielded 4276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,578 Sample size of 1,578 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 42.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
8/21/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	600	±4.0	unknown	4280d old 4280d old Poll was fielded 4280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 40.0 · Jason Carter 44.0	poll arch
8/17/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	560	±4.2	unknown	4284d oldtracks editorial consensus 4284d old Poll was fielded 4284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 39.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
8/13/2014	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	719	±3.7	unknown	bias R+2.6pt4288d old+1 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 4288d old Poll was fielded 4288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 43.0 · Jason Carter 39.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
8/10/2014	Hicks Evaluation Group	1.00	—	788	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4291d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4291d old Poll was fielded 4291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 45.0	poll arch
7/25/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	750	±3.8	unknown	4307d old 4307d old Poll was fielded 4307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 40.0 · Jason Carter 47.0 · Andrew Hunt 5.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4308d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 45.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2568	±3.4	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,568 Sample size of 2,568 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 50.0 · Jason Carter 41.0	poll arch
7/15/2014	Landmark Communications	1.25	L(D+2.4)	750	±4.0	unknown	4317d old 4317d old Poll was fielded 4317 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 41.0 · Jason Carter 49.0 · Andrew Hunt 4.0	poll arch
7/13/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	664	—	unknown	4319d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4319d old Poll was fielded 4319 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 41.0 · Jason Carter 40.0 · Andrew Hunt 8.0	poll arch
6/25/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	1349	±2.7	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4337d old Poll was fielded 4337 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 40.0	poll arch
6/5/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	999	±3.2	unknown	4357d oldtracks editorial consensus 4357d old Poll was fielded 4357 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 38.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
5/22/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4371d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4371d old Poll was fielded 4371 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 41.0 · Jason Carter 48.0	poll arch
5/22/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	803	—	unknown	4371d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4371d old Poll was fielded 4371 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 43.0 · Jason Carter 43.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
5/12/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1380	±2.7	unknown	4381d oldtracks editorial consensus 4381d old Poll was fielded 4381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 43.0 · Jason Carter 37.0 · Andrew Hunt 7.0	poll arch
5/8/2014	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	1012	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4385d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4385d old Poll was fielded 4385 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 44.0	poll arch
5/6/2014	Saint Leo	1.00	—	1000	±3.0	unknown	no scored polls4387d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 38.0 · Jason Carter 35.0 · Andrew Hunt 11.0	poll arch
5/5/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	2196	±2.1	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4388d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4388d old Poll was fielded 4388 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,196 Sample size of 2,196 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 50.0 · Jason Carter 40.0	poll arch
4/27/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	1567	±2.5	unknown	4396d oldn=1,567+1 4396d old Poll was fielded 4396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,567 Sample size of 1,567 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Nathan Deal 41.0 · Jason Carter 37.0 · Andrew Hunt 9.0	poll arch
4/3/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	628	±4.0	unknown	4420d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4420d old Poll was fielded 4420 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 42.0 · Jason Carter 43.0	poll arch
3/30/2014	Landmark/Rosetta Stone	1.00	—	575	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4424d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4424d old Poll was fielded 4424 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 43.0 · Jason Carter 39.0	poll arch
3/13/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	486	±4.3	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4441d old Poll was fielded 4441 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 38.0 · Jason Carter 41.0	poll arch
2/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	833	±4.0	unknown	4462d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4462d old Poll was fielded 4462 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Jason Carter 42.0	poll arch
1/9/2014	Atlanta Journal-Constitution	1.00	—	802	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4504d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4504d old Poll was fielded 4504 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Jason Carter 38.0	poll arch
1/6/2014	Insider Advantage	0.49	—(D+8.1)	529	±4.6	unknown	weight 0.493 scored polls+1 weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4507d old Poll was fielded 4507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 22.0	poll arch
10/20/2013	Anzalone Liszt Grove	1.00	—	600	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4585d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4585d old Poll was fielded 4585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 36.0	poll arch
10/8/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	602	±4.1	unknown	4597d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4597d old Poll was fielded 4597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · Jason Carter 40.0	poll arch
8/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4661d old Poll was fielded 4661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Jason Carter 33.0	poll arch
8/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4661d old Poll was fielded 4661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Stacey Abrams 34.0	poll arch
8/5/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	520	±4.3	unknown	4661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4661d old Poll was fielded 4661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Scott Holcomb 28.0	poll arch
5/9/2013	20/20 Insight, LLC	1.00	—	1483	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4749d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4749d old Poll was fielded 4749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 42.0 · Jason Carter 45.0	poll arch
5/9/2013	20/20 Insight, LLC	1.00	—	1483	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4749d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4749d old Poll was fielded 4749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 45.0 · Stacey Abrams 39.0	poll arch
5/9/2013	20/20 Insight, LLC	1.00	—	1483	±2.5	unknown	no scored polls4749d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4749d old Poll was fielded 4749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Nathan Deal 41.0 · Scott Holcomb 41.0	poll arch
2/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	602	±4.0	unknown	4829d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4829d old Poll was fielded 4829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 38.0	poll arch
2/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	602	±4.0	unknown	4829d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4829d old Poll was fielded 4829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · John Barrow 38.0	poll arch
2/18/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	602	±4.0	unknown	4829d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4829d old Poll was fielded 4829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 48.0 · Kasim Reed 38.0	poll arch
12/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	729	±3.6	unknown	4907d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4907d old Poll was fielded 4907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 46.0 · Jason Carter 38.0	poll arch
12/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	729	±3.6	unknown	4907d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4907d old Poll was fielded 4907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 44.0 · John Barrow 40.0	poll arch
12/2/2012	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	729	±3.6	unknown	4907d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4907d old Poll was fielded 4907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Nathan Deal 47.0 · Kasim Reed 40.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 3	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/3/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi