| 11/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 926 | ±3.2 | unknown | 🟡4207d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 42.0 · Joe Visconti 8.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 931 | ±3.2 | unknown | 🟡4208d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4208d old Poll was fielded 4208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · Thomas C. Foley 41.0 · Joe Visconti 6.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 977 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4210d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4210d old Poll was fielded 4210 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 48.0 · Thomas C. Foley 47.0 | pollarch |
| 10/27/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 838 | ±3.4 | unknown | 🟡4213d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 43.0 · Joe Visconti 7.0 | pollarch |
| 10/23/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1267 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4217d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 40.0 · Thomas C. Foley 40.0 · Joe Visconti 3.0 | pollarch |
| 10/20/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1010 | ±3.1 | unknown | 🟡4220d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 42.0 · Joe Visconti 9.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 980 | ±3.5 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4224d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 50.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1085 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟡4234d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4234d old Poll was fielded 4234 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 43.0 · Joe Visconti 9.0 | pollarch |
| 10/5/2014 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 861 | ±3.3 | unknown | 🟡4235d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4235d old Poll was fielded 4235 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 35.0 · Joe Visconti 9.0 | pollarch |
| 10/1/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1284 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4239d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 41.0 · Thomas C. Foley 41.0 · Joe Visconti 3.0 | pollarch |
| 9/8/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1304 | ±2.7 | unknown | 🟡4262d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4262d old Poll was fielded 4262 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 40.0 · Thomas C. Foley 46.0 · Joe Visconti 7.0 | pollarch |
| 9/2/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1808 | ±3.0 | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4268d old+2- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,808 Sample size of 1,808 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 42.0 · Thomas C. Foley 41.0 | pollarch |
| 8/19/2014 | Rasmussen Reports | 1.00 | —(R+2.1) | 750 | ±4.0 | unknown | 🟡bias R+2.1pt🟡4282d old+1- 🟡
bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. - 🟡
4282d old Poll was fielded 4282 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 38.0 · Thomas C. Foley 45.0 | pollarch |
| 8/7/2014 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 440 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡4294d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
4294d old Poll was fielded 4294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Dannel Malloy 38.0 · Thomas C. Foley 46.0 | pollarch |
| 8/7/2014 | Gravis Marketing | 0.72 | L(D+2.9) | 440 | ±5.0 | unknown | 🟡bias D+2.9pt🟡4294d old+1- 🟡
bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. - 🟡
4294d old Poll was fielded 4294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
| Dannel Malloy 38.0 · John P. McKinney 45.0 | pollarch |
| 7/29/2014 | Anzalone Liszt Grove | 1.00 | — | 900 | — | unknown | 🟡no scored polls🟡4303d old- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
4303d old Poll was fielded 4303 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
| Dannel Malloy 46.0 · Thomas C. Foley 46.0 | pollarch |
| 7/28/2014 | Vox Populi Polling | 0.96 | —(D+1.9) | 550 | ±4.2 | unknown | 🟡4304d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4304d old Poll was fielded 4304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 35.0 · Thomas C. Foley 34.0 | pollarch |
| 7/24/2014 | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | 0.59 | L(D+4.9) | 1177 | — | unknown | 🟠historical bias D+4.9pt🟡4308d old+1- 🟠
historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 41.0 · Thomas C. Foley 48.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Thomas C. Foley 43.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · Mark Boughton 39.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 46.0 · Martha Dean 37.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 45.0 · Mark Lauretti 37.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · John P. McKinney 40.0 | pollarch |
| 5/6/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1668 | ±2.4 | unknown | 🟡4387d old🔵n=1,668+1- 🟡
4387d old Poll was fielded 4387 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,668 Sample size of 1,668 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 46.0 · Joe Visconti 36.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 42.0 · Thomas C. Foley 42.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 45.0 · Toni Boucher 34.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · Mark Boughton 35.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · Mark Lauretti 34.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · John P. McKinney 37.0 | pollarch |
| 3/2/2014 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1878 | ±2.3 | unknown | 🟡4452d old🔵n=1,878+1- 🟡
4452d old Poll was fielded 4452 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
n=1,878 Sample size of 1,878 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 45.0 · Joe Visconti 34.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2013 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1154 | ±2.9 | unknown | 🟡4710d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4710d old Poll was fielded 4710 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 40.0 · Thomas C. Foley 43.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2013 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1154 | ±2.9 | unknown | 🟡4710d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4710d old Poll was fielded 4710 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 43.0 · Mark Boughton 36.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2013 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1154 | ±2.9 | unknown | 🟡4710d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4710d old Poll was fielded 4710 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · Lawrence F. Cafero 37.0 | pollarch |
| 6/17/2013 | Quinnipiac University | 1.00 | —(D+1.9) | 1154 | ±2.9 | unknown | 🟡4710d old🔵tracks editorial consensus- 🟡
4710d old Poll was fielded 4710 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Dannel Malloy 44.0 · John P. McKinney 37.0 | pollarch |
| 11/2/2012 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 1220 | ±2.8 | unknown | 🟡4937d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+1- 🟡
4937d old Poll was fielded 4937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Dannel Malloy 48.0 | pollarch |