Races · Governor · 2014 · CO

Governor · open seat

John Hickenlooper vs Bob Beauprez

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Lean D — · 82 polls · 0 markets Last poll 4207d ago Rating 1d ago

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Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 82 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Lean D

lean-d

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 82 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:82 of 82 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/2/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	739	±3.6	unknown	4207d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	815	±3.4	unknown	4207d oldtracks editorial consensus 4207d old Poll was fielded 4207 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.0	poll arch
10/31/2014	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1417	±3.3	unknown	historical bias D+3.7pt4209d old historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 4209d old Poll was fielded 4209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 42.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	573	—	unknown	4211d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Bob Beauprez 47.0	poll arch
10/29/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	618	±4.0	unknown	4211d oldtracks editorial consensus 4211d old Poll was fielded 4211 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Vox Populi Polling	0.96	—(D+1.9)	642	±3.9	unknown	4213d oldtracks editorial consensus 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
10/27/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	844	±3.4	unknown	4213d oldtracks editorial consensus 4213d old Poll was fielded 4213 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 40.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.0	poll arch
10/25/2014	Strategies 360	1.13	—(D+2.5)	604	±4.0	unknown	3 scored polls4215d old 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 4215d old Poll was fielded 4215 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	966	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4217d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Bob Beauprez 49.0	poll arch
10/23/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1611	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4217d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4217d old Poll was fielded 4217 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,611 Sample size of 1,611 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
10/22/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	755	±3.6	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4218d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4218d old Poll was fielded 4218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Bob Beauprez 41.0	poll arch
10/21/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4219d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.4	poll arch
10/21/2014	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	974	±3.1	unknown	4219d oldtracks editorial consensus 4219d old Poll was fielded 4219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	431	±4.7	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt4220d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
10/20/2014	Ipsos	1.00	—(R+1.9)	1099	±3.4	unknown	4220d oldtracks editorial consensus 4220d old Poll was fielded 4220 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
10/19/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	778	±3.5	unknown	4221d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4221d old Poll was fielded 4221 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
10/16/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	695	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4224d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4224d old Poll was fielded 4224 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 48.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	988	±3.1	unknown	4227d old 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 42.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
10/13/2014	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	665	±4.0	unknown	4227d oldtracks editorial consensus 4227d old Poll was fielded 4227 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Bob Beauprez 48.0	poll arch
10/12/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	591	±4.1	unknown	4228d oldtracks editorial consensus 4228d old Poll was fielded 4228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
10/8/2014	High Point University	1.00	—	800	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls4232d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4232d old Poll was fielded 4232 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
10/7/2014	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	739	±3.5	unknown	bias D+2.6pt4233d old bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 4233d old Poll was fielded 4233 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 42.0 · Bob Beauprez 42.0	poll arch
10/1/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1634	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4239d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4239d old Poll was fielded 4239 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,634 Sample size of 1,634 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.0	poll arch
9/30/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	950	±3.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4240d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4240d old Poll was fielded 4240 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Bob Beauprez 46.0	poll arch
9/17/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	657	±4.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4253d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4253d old Poll was fielded 4253 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 48.0	poll arch
9/16/2014	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4254d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 4254d old Poll was fielded 4254 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 40.8	poll arch
9/15/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1211	±2.8	unknown	4255d old 4255d old Poll was fielded 4255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 40.0 · Bob Beauprez 50.0	poll arch
9/14/2014	Myers	1.00	—	1350	±2.7	unknown	no scored polls4256d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4256d old Poll was fielded 4256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 51.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
9/10/2014	SurveyUSA	1.00	—(D+1.5)	664	±3.9	unknown	4260d oldtracks editorial consensus 4260d old Poll was fielded 4260 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	800	±3.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4266d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.0	poll arch
9/4/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	795	±3.5	LV	historical bias D+5.1pt4266d old+2 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4266d old Poll was fielded 4266 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 39.0	poll arch
9/2/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	1727	±4.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4268d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4268d old Poll was fielded 4268 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,727 Sample size of 1,727 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Bob Beauprez 45.0	poll arch
7/24/2014	CBS News/NYT/YouGov	0.59	L(D+4.9)	2020	±3.0	unknown	historical bias D+4.9pt4308d old+2 historical bias D+4.9pt Across 34 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.9pt — a measurable house effect. 4308d old Poll was fielded 4308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=2,020 Sample size of 2,020 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 34 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Bob Beauprez 47.0	poll arch
7/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	653	±3.8	unknown	4312d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4312d old Poll was fielded 4312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
7/14/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1147	±2.9	unknown	4318d old 4318d old Poll was fielded 4318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	Gravis Marketing	0.72	L(D+2.9)	1106	±3.0	unknown	bias D+2.9pt4322d old+1 bias D+2.9pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.9pt. 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 49 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
7/10/2014	NBC News/Marist	0.75	L(D+5.1)	914	±3.2	unknown	historical bias D+5.1pt4322d old+1 historical bias D+5.1pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.1pt — a measurable house effect. 4322d old Poll was fielded 4322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
6/26/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	750	±4.0	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4336d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4336d old Poll was fielded 4336 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Bob Beauprez 44.0	poll arch
4/21/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1298	±2.7	unknown	4402d old 4402d old Poll was fielded 4402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Bob Beauprez 39.0	poll arch
4/21/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1298	±2.7	unknown	4402d old 4402d old Poll was fielded 4402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Scott Gessler 38.0	poll arch
4/21/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1298	±2.7	unknown	4402d old 4402d old Poll was fielded 4402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Mike Kopp 38.0	poll arch
4/21/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1298	±2.7	unknown	4402d old 4402d old Poll was fielded 4402 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Tom Tancredo 40.0	poll arch
4/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	618	—	unknown	4403d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4403d old Poll was fielded 4403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Bob Beauprez 41.0	poll arch
4/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	618	—	unknown	4403d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4403d old Poll was fielded 4403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Scott Gessler 41.0	poll arch
4/20/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	618	—	unknown	4403d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4403d old Poll was fielded 4403 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Tom Tancredo 41.0	poll arch
4/15/2014	Magellan Strategies	0.94	neutral(R+0.3)	717	±3.7	unknown	4408d old 4408d old Poll was fielded 4408 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Bob Beauprez 35.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	4438d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Bob Beauprez 38.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	4438d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Greg Brophy 33.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	4438d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Scott Gessler 36.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	4438d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Mike Kopp 32.0	poll arch
3/16/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	568	±4.1	unknown	4438d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4438d old Poll was fielded 4438 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Tom Tancredo 36.0	poll arch
3/6/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4448d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4448d old Poll was fielded 4448 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 42.0 · Greg Brophy 33.0	poll arch
3/6/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4448d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4448d old Poll was fielded 4448 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Scott Gessler 38.0	poll arch
3/6/2014	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	500	±4.5	unknown	bias R+2.1pt4448d old+1 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 4448d old Poll was fielded 4448 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Tom Tancredo 37.0	poll arch
2/20/2014	Hickman Analytics	1.00	—	400	±4.9	unknown	no scored polls4462d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4462d old Poll was fielded 4462 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 51.0 · Tom Tancredo 40.0	poll arch
2/2/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1139	±2.9	unknown	4480d old 4480d old Poll was fielded 4480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Greg Brophy 37.0	poll arch
2/2/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1139	±2.9	unknown	4480d old 4480d old Poll was fielded 4480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Scott Gessler 40.0	poll arch
2/2/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1139	±2.9	unknown	4480d old 4480d old Poll was fielded 4480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Mike Kopp 38.0	poll arch
2/2/2014	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1139	±2.9	unknown	4480d old 4480d old Poll was fielded 4480 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Tom Tancredo 39.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	928	±3.2	unknown	4540d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Greg Brophy 43.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	928	±3.2	unknown	4540d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Scott Gessler 40.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	928	±3.2	unknown	4540d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Mike Kopp 37.0	poll arch
12/4/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	928	±3.2	unknown	4540d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4540d old Poll was fielded 4540 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 48.0 · Tom Tancredo 40.0	poll arch
11/18/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1206	±2.8	unknown	4556d old 4556d old Poll was fielded 4556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Greg Brophy 38.0	poll arch
11/18/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1206	±2.8	unknown	4556d old 4556d old Poll was fielded 4556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 45.0 · Scott Gessler 40.0	poll arch
11/18/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1206	±2.8	unknown	4556d old 4556d old Poll was fielded 4556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 44.0 · Mike Kopp 40.0	poll arch
11/18/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1206	±2.8	unknown	4556d old 4556d old Poll was fielded 4556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Tom Tancredo 41.0	poll arch
8/21/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1184	±2.9	unknown	4645d old 4645d old Poll was fielded 4645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Greg Brophy 42.0	poll arch
8/21/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1184	±2.9	unknown	4645d old 4645d old Poll was fielded 4645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 47.0 · Scott Gessler 42.0	poll arch
8/21/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1184	±2.9	unknown	4645d old 4645d old Poll was fielded 4645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 46.0 · Tom Tancredo 45.0	poll arch
6/30/2013	A.L.G. Research	1.00	—	400	—	unknown	no scored polls4697d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4697d old Poll was fielded 4697 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 51.0 · Tom Tancredo 40.0	poll arch
6/10/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4717d old 4717d old Poll was fielded 4717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 43.0 · Greg Brophy 37.0	poll arch
6/10/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4717d old 4717d old Poll was fielded 4717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 42.0 · Scott Gessler 40.0	poll arch
6/10/2013	Quinnipiac	0.83	R(R+3.7)	1065	±3.0	unknown	4717d old 4717d old Poll was fielded 4717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	John Hickenlooper 42.0 · Tom Tancredo 41.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Bob Beauprez 43.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 51.0 · Cory Gardner 40.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Scott Gessler 40.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Jane Norton 39.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · Walker Stapleton 38.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 49.0 · John Suthers 39.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 52.0 · Tom Tancredo 41.0	poll arch
4/14/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	4774d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4774d old Poll was fielded 4774 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	John Hickenlooper 50.0 · Scott Tipton 40.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 3	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 3	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 140 months ago (11/2/2014) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Lean D via pvi