Four House districts shifted ratings in the week ending June 28, with AZ-2 and FL-7 flipping to lean-Democratic and VA-01 moving the other way; prediction markets diverged from polling-based ratings across contested seats.

Sun Belt House seats flip to lean-Democratic. In Arizona's 2nd district, a GBAO survey (n=500, ±4.4pp, likely voters, field end June 15, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned group) showed Jonathan Nez (D) at 44% and incumbent Eli Crane (R) at 41%.^[1] In Florida's 7th, a Public Policy Polling survey (n=570, ±4.1pp, registered voters, field end May 21, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned group) showed Bale Dalton (D) at 41% and incumbent Cory Mills (R) at 39%.^[2] Both districts had previously been rated lean-Republican. Prediction markets on Kalshi continued to price Republican win probability above 60% in both districts as of June 27, diverging from the polling-based ratings.

Virginia and New York districts shift in opposite directions. New York's 21st tightened from likely-Republican to tilt-Republican, with the aggregator's consensus polling margin at R+1. An Impact Research survey (n=500, ±4.4pp, likely voters, field end May 31, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned group) showed Anthony Constantino (R) at 45% and Blake Gendebien (D) at 44%.^[3] Prediction markets on Kalshi placed the Republican win probability in NY-21 at 71.5% and the Democratic probability at 27.5% as of June 27. Moving the other way, Virginia's 1st shifted from tilt-Democratic to tilt-Republican on June 26; the sole publicly available poll (Public Policy Polling, n=541, ±4.2pp, registered voters, field end August 9, 2025) showed Rob Wittman (R) at 41% and Shannon Taylor (D) at 40%. Prediction markets placed the Republican Party at 51 cents on Kalshi and approximately 47 cents on Polymarket as of June 26.

Virginia Senate: Warner holds wide early lead. The Virginia Senate race carries a safe-Democratic rating. Three candidate-specific matchup surveys from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project — a Republican-sponsored organization — were conducted through May 5 (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, likely voters). Warner led Kim Farington (R) 54%–29% (D+25), Bert Mizusawa (R) 55%–29% (D+26), and David Williams (R) 54%–29% (D+25).^[4] Prediction markets on Polymarket placed the Democratic party's win probability at 92.5% as of June 27.

Michigan Senate primary: Van Hollen endorses El-Sayed. Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen endorsed progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary during the week, ahead of the August primary.