Today's update covers three developments: the Iowa Senate race re-rated to tossup following a convergence of recent surveys,[1] new polls showing Trump's job approval averaging near 40 percent ahead of the midterm cycle,[10] and rating adjustments issued for the Connecticut and Maine governor contests.
Iowa Senate — The race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek moved from tilt-Republican to tossup today, with the polling consensus narrowing to a margin of −0.2 percentage points.[1]
A Fox News poll conducted June 23–27 among 1,003 Iowa registered voters found Hinson leading Turek 48% to 44%.[1] A New York Times/Siena University survey (n=600 likely voters, ±4.7pp, field ended June 27) showed Hinson at 48% and Turek at 46%.[2] An internal Democratic poll by Global Strategy Group (n=1,000 likely voters, ±3.1pp, field ended June 11) showed Turek ahead 47% to 45%.[3] A Public Policy Polling survey (n=557 registered voters, ±4.2pp, field ended June 4) found the candidates tied at 46% each.[4]
CNN ranked Iowa among the nine Senate seats most likely to flip in November 2026.[5] The Hill reported that Senate control is up for grabs, with Iowa cited among the competitive races.[7] Newsweek noted that Democrats need to flip four seats to win a Senate majority, with structural challenges limiting clear flip opportunities to a small number of states.[6]
Prediction markets on Kalshi show Hinson with an implied probability of approximately 58–59 cents on the dollar as of July 2, with Turek at approximately 41–43 cents.
Trump Job Approval — As of July 2, aggregated polling averages showed President Trump's approval at approximately 40.6% approve / 57.4% disapprove.[10] The Economist's tracker placed Trump's net approval at a similar level through late June.[11]
An Economist/YouGov survey released June 30 found 60% of respondents said Trump has not focused on the country's most important issues, compared to 29% who said he has the right priorities and 11% who were unsure.[8][9] Among respondents identifying the single most important issue, 30% cited inflation or rising prices.[9]
A separate survey showed Trump reaching a new approval low ahead of the 2026 midterms, with economic concerns identified as a contributing factor.[12] Some Republican lawmakers have expressed concern about the president's alignment with voters on the economy, with The Hill citing a statement in which Trump said he was not thinking about Americans' finances while focused on Iran negotiations.[13]
References
- [1]Fox News Poll: A close Senate contest is brewing in Iowa · Fox News
- [2]Times/Siena Battleground Poll Crosstabs — Iowa Senate · New York Times
- [3]Global Strategy Group Iowa Senate Poll (June 2026) · Politico
- [4]Public Policy Polling Iowa Senate Survey (June 2026) · Politico
- [5]The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026 · CNN
- [6]Democrats' Chances of Flipping Senate, According to Polls · Newsweek
- [7]Senate control up for grabs: Survey · The Hill
- [8]60% say Trump isn't focused on top issues in latest poll · USA Today
- [9]Poll Shows 60% of Americans Think Trump Isn't Focused on Top Problems · Newsweek
- [10]Donald Trump's approval rating as of today; Trump approval rating now · App.com
- [11]Donald Trump's approval rating · The Economist
- [12]Ahead of midterms, Trump approval hits new low in latest polls · Philly Burbs
- [13]GOP lawmakers fear Trump is out of sync with voters on the economy · The Hill
- [14]University of New Hampshire Survey Center Connecticut Governor Poll (June 2026) · University of New Hampshire
- [15]Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena Maine Poll Crosstabs · New York Times
- [16]Map Shows Governor Races Most Likely to Flip in Midterms · Newsweek
- [17]Who Is Ahead in the Vermont Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls · New York Times