Texas Senate 2026 polls show Paxton, Talarico locked in near-tie

Texas Senate 2026 — Five surveys conducted in June 2026 show a tight general-election race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with individual poll margins ranging from D+3 to R+2.

The most recent poll, from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (n=1,200, ±2.8pp, registered voters, field end June 23), found Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%.^[1] A survey by SoCal Strategies (n=800, likely voters, R-aligned sponsor, field end June 21) showed Paxton at 49% and Talarico at 47%.^[2] An earlier University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll (n=1,200, ±2.8pp, registered voters, field end June 12) also had Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%.^[3] The Texas Pulse Poll (n=807, ±4.0pp, likely voters, field end June 9) put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44%.^[4] Quantus Insights (n=800, ±3.5pp, likely voters, field end June 5) found Paxton at 45% and Talarico at 43%.^[5]

The polling-average consensus rates the race tilt-D, with a D+0.71 margin across 79 total polls in the aggregator database. The aggregator's forecast model, which incorporates factors beyond polling alone, projects a point margin of R+5.6 and assigns a 26.4% probability to a Democratic win. Prediction markets price Paxton as the favorite: Kalshi at 60.0% implied probability^[6] and Polymarket at 56.5%.^[7]

Virginia Senate 2026 — The Virginia Senate race has 7 polls in the aggregator database. A May 2026 survey from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, likely voters, sponsored by Virginia Project, an R-aligned organization, field end May 5) tested three Republican challengers against Democrat Mark Warner. Warner led Kim Farington 54% to 29% (D+25), Bert Mizusawa 55% to 29% (D+26), and David Williams 54% to 29% (D+25).^[8]

The same PSI fieldwork batch also contains an additional configuration with an R+56 margin — a result the data attributes to a different matchup configuration or partisan-subsample split within the same May 5 fieldwork.^[8] The spread across configurations reflects the early-stage nature of the race, in which the Republican primary field has not yet consolidated around a single nominee.

Prediction markets heavily favor Democrats: Polymarket at 93.5% implied Democratic win probability^[9] and Kalshi at 95.7%. The race is rated safe-D, with a forecast point margin of D+12.3 and a 91.8% Democratic win probability per the aggregator model.

Presidential Approval — 2026 Midterm Context — Presidential job approval is a structural variable that forecasters track as a benchmark for the midterm electoral environment. The competitive Senate polling picture in Texas, where five June 2026 surveys show single-digit margins between the two major-party candidates, represents one data point in the broader national environment that will shape competitive races through November 2026.