Arizona and Florida House seats flip to lean-Democratic.

Arizona 2nd and Florida 7th shift to lean-Democratic. Both seats were previously rated lean-Republican. In AZ-2, a GBAO survey fielded through June 15 (n=500, ±4.4pp, likely voters, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned internal) showed Jonathan Nez (D) at 44% and Eli Crane (R) at 41%.^[1] In FL-7, a Public Policy Polling survey fielded through May 21 (n=570, ±4.1pp, registered voters, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned internal) showed Bale Dalton (D) at 41% and Cory Mills (R) at 39%.^[2] Prediction markets on Kalshi continued to price the Republican win probability above 60% in both districts as of June 27, diverging from the polling-based ratings.

New York 21st tightens to tilt-Republican. The district's rating moved one tier, from likely-Republican to tilt-Republican, with the aggregator's consensus polling margin at R+1. An Impact Research survey fielded through May 31 (n=500, ±4.4pp, likely voters, commissioned by a Democratic-aligned internal) showed Anthony Constantino (R) at 45% and Blake Gendebien (D) at 44%.^[3] Prediction markets on Kalshi placed the Republican win probability at 71.5% and the Democratic probability at 27.5% as of June 27.

Virginia Senate: early polls show wide Warner lead. The Virginia Senate race carries a safe-Democratic rating. Three candidate-specific matchup surveys from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project — a Republican-sponsored organization — were conducted through May 5 (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, likely voters) and showed Democratic candidate Mark Warner leading each Republican in the field by 25 to 26 percentage points: Warner led Kim Farington (R) 54%–29% (D+25), Bert Mizusawa (R) 55%–29% (D+26), and David Williams (R) 54%–29% (D+25).^[4] Prediction markets on Polymarket placed the Democratic party's win probability at 92.5% as of June 27.