Record 48% of Americans say U.S. too supportive of Israel, Quinnipiac finds.

Virginia Senate 2026 — The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project released multiple matchup-scenario polls in May 2026 (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, likely voters, sponsored by the Virginia Project), each finding Sen. Mark Warner at 54–55% against Republican challengers Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams, each registering 29%.^[1] Independent candidate Mark Moran polled at 2–3% across the same survey instruments.^[1] An earlier Virginia Commonwealth University poll conducted in December 2024 (n=806) had placed Warner at 45% in a separate matchup.^[1] The race carries a current rating of Safe Democratic and a model forecast margin of D+11.8.

Texas Senate 2026 — Five polls released in June show the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton within the margin of error. The University of Texas Texas Politics Project (n=1,200, ±3.5pp, registered voters, field end June 23) found Paxton leading 43% to 42%.^[2] A SoCal Strategies survey (n=800, likely voters, June 21) gave Paxton a 49%–47% edge.^[3] The Texas Pulse Poll (n=807, ±4.0pp, likely voters, June 9) had Talarico ahead 47%–44%.^[4] The race is currently rated Tilt Republican by this aggregator, with a model forecast of R+5.2. Prediction markets price Paxton as the winner at roughly 58–60 cents on Kalshi and Polymarket as of June 25.

U.S.-Israel Policy: Public Opinion — A Quinnipiac University survey released June 25 found that 48% of American adults believe the United States is too supportive of Israel, which Quinnipiac described as a record high in its tracking on the question.^[5] The same poll found that 60% of respondents said military intervention in Iran was "not worth it."^[5] A separate survey reported by the Times of Israel found similar levels of public skepticism about U.S. support for Israel.^[6]

New York's June 24 congressional primary results drew attention as a potential indicator of voter sentiment on the issue. The New York Times reported that candidates running on explicit criticism of Israeli military operations won several competitive Democratic primaries, including Darializa Avila Chevalier's defeat of Rep. Adriano Espaillat — a decade-long Israel supporter — and Claire Valdez's victory over Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.^[7] Haaretz noted that several of the affected districts carry some of the country's largest Jewish populations, and characterized the results as reflecting an intraparty Democratic debate over military aid to Israel and AIPAC's electoral influence.^[8]

Trump Approval: Conflicting Readings — Multiple national polls released this week produced divergent signals on President Trump's standing. A Newsweek-reported poll found Trump's approval among independent voters had increased recently,^[9] while a separate survey highlighted by Newsweek showed his overall approval at 30%, described as the lowest reading in that particular series.^[10] An Economist/YouGov poll conducted June 19–22, 2026 (n=1,679 U.S. adult citizens) found Trump's approval among Gen Z voters at a new low in that survey's tracking.^[11] On the economy, one poll reported by NJ.com showed a 26% approval and 70% disapproval rating for Trump's economic handling among all adults, with registered voters at 27% approve and 70% disapprove.^[13]

Internationally, a Pew Research Center survey of adults in 36 nations found broad disapproval of Trump's handling of key global issues, with a median of 74% across surveyed countries disapproving of his handling of Iran specifically.^[12] Canada, which registered 83% confidence in U.S. reliability as a global partner in 2022, fell 48 points to 35% in 2026 in the same Pew survey.^[14] Axios noted that Trump's Western European confidence ratings are slightly above where they stood at the end of his first term and roughly comparable to President George W. Bush's second-term numbers.^[15]