South Carolina Republicans head to governor runoff with Trump backing both candidates

Virginia Senate: First Poll Batch Sets Baseline

The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project — a Republican-aligned organization — released five cross-tabulated matchup polls fielded May 5, 2026 (n=1,047, ±3.7pp, likely voters), finding Sen. Mark Warner (D) leading each Republican candidate by 25 to 26 points.^[1] In the three-way test against Kim Farington (R) and independent Mark Moran, Warner received 54%, Farington 29%, and Moran 2%.^[1] Warner also led Bert Mizusawa (R) 55%–29% and David Williams (R) 54%–29% in separate matchups.^[1] A Virginia Commonwealth University survey (n=806) conducted in December 2024 placed Warner at 45% against a hypothetical Glenn Youngkin matchup. Prediction markets on Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi price the Democratic nominee at 91.9%–98% win probability. The race carries a Safe D rating.

Texas Senate: Close General Election Takes Shape

In Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn lost his primary to former Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Talarico-Paxton general election has produced competitive polling. A Texas Pulse Poll conducted June 9 (n=807, ±4.0pp, LV) found state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Paxton 47%–44%.^[2] A Quantus Insights poll fielded June 4-5 (n=800, ±3.5pp, LV) showed Paxton ahead 45%–43%.^[3] Cornyn said publicly he was uncertain how Paxton would raise sufficient funds to compete against Talarico, describing Talarico as having "unlimited resources," according to Newsweek.^[4] Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi price Paxton at approximately 57–58% probability of winning.

South Carolina Governor Runoff

South Carolina Republicans return to the polls Tuesday in a runoff after none of the seven primary candidates cleared 50% on June 9.^[5] Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette led the primary with 28.9% of the vote; Attorney General Alan Wilson placed second with 26.1%; Rep. Ralph Norman finished third with 17.1%.^[5]

President Trump initially endorsed Evette, then extended a simultaneous endorsement to Wilson on Friday, writing that he could not "hurt one of them by only endorsing the other."^[9] Wilson also received the endorsement of Rep. Nancy Mace, who placed fifth in the primary with 12.2% of the vote.^[9] Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term-limited, had endorsed Evette.^[6]

Evette's primary support was concentrated in the Pee Dee region to the northeast (approximately 15% of primary vote); Wilson's strongest area was the central core of the state, including Richland County and several majority-Black counties (approximately 19% of primary vote).^[5] The winner will face Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who won the Democratic primary outright on June 9. Democrats have not won the South Carolina governorship since 1998.^[6]

New York Congressional Primaries

New York holds Democratic congressional primaries Tuesday in which Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsements test whether his coalition extends beyond his own race.^[7] In the 10th Congressional District, Mamdani backed former city Comptroller Brad Lander against incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman; a USA Today opinion column citing Emerson College polling reported 57% of district voters supporting Lander.^[10] In the 13th District in upper Manhattan, Mamdani endorsed public defender Darializa Avila Chevalier, 32, over incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, 71.^[8] For the Brooklyn and Queens seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Mamdani endorsed Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a self-described democratic socialist.^[8]

In the open 12th District replacing retired Rep. Jerry Nadler, Mamdani declined to endorse; Assemblymember Micah Lasher, backed by Nadler, led in polling.^[10] A separate House primary has drawn attention from competing factions of the artificial intelligence industry, each backing different Democratic candidates.^[7]

RFK Jr. Job Approval and Health Policy Polling

A Fox News poll conducted June 12-15, 2026 (n=1,002 registered voters, ±3pp) found HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s job rating net-negative: 45% approved of his performance while 54% disapproved, figures largely unchanged from a September 2025 reading.^[11] Approval diverged by Republican subgroup: 88% of self-identified MAGA Republicans approved, compared with 58% of non-MAGA Republicans.^[11] Despite Kennedy's personal ratings, the same poll found 89% of respondents prioritizing food safety. A Republican pollster who co-conducts the Fox News survey noted in the release that MAHA-aligned policy priorities — protecting Americans from "bad food, bad drugs, and bad apps" — were "extremely popular, particularly with groups Republicans have struggled with lately."^[11]

A separate Axios/Ipsos poll conducted June 12-15 (n=1,189 adults, ±2.9pp) found approximately half of respondents saying health care affordability measures would probably influence their vote; more than 6 in 10 supported direct-to-consumer drug sales, and roughly the same share backed reinstating enhanced ACA subsidies that Congress allowed to expire. Cost concerns were concentrated among adults ages 30-49, parents of children under 18, and households with income below $50,000.^[13]