Trump approval on inflation falls to record low in May polling.

Rating changes (last 24 hours). The Illinois governor race moved from safe-D to lean-D, with the change sourced to partisan voter index rather than new polling; the most recent public poll in the race (Victory Research for FOX 32 Chicago, n=1,208, ±2.8pp, field-ended November 24, 2025) showed Democrat JB Pritzker at 54% to Republican Darren Bailey at 34%^[10]. The model's central forecast remains D+20.6 and market-implied Democratic probability is 0.925 on Polymarket and 0.917 on Kalshi as of May 28^[10]. Ohio's 9th Congressional District (Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin) moved from tilt-R to lean-R after a McLaughlin & Associates poll (n=400, ±4.9pp, field-ended April 20, 2026, R-aligned internal) showed Merrin 47%, Kaptur 43%^[6]. Pennsylvania's 10th moved in the opposite direction, from tilt-R to likely-D, on the basis of three polls fielded between July 2025 and April 2026 — the most recent a Normington Petts survey (n=400, ±4.9pp, field-ended April 23, 2026, D-aligned internal) showing Democrat Janelle Stelson at 51% to Republican incumbent Scott Perry at 45%^[8]. Both polls cited for the House races were partisan internals.

Virginia Senate polling. A batch of polls from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project, sponsored by Virginia Project (R), was scraped today; all share a sample of n=1,047 likely voters with a margin of error of ±3.7pp and field-ended May 5, 2026. Across three hypothetical matchups, Democrat Mark Warner polled 54% against Republican Kim Farington at 29%, 55% against Bert Mizusawa at 29%, and 54% against David Williams at 29%, with independent Mark Moran at 2–3% in each^[4]. A separate Virginia Commonwealth University Commonwealth Poll (n=806 adults, ±4.7pp, field-ended December 18, 2024) had Warner at 45% to Republican Glenn Youngkin at 38%^[5]. The race's current rating is safe-D and the central forecast margin is D+14.1; Polymarket lists the Democratic side at 0.925 yes-price and Kalshi at 0.96 for Democratic Party^[4].

Trump approval on inflation. The May 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll (n=1,520 U.S. adults, ±2.7pp, fielded May 18–19, 2026) reported President Trump's net approval on prices and inflation at −47, with 25% approving and 72% disapproving; 57% said they strongly disapprove^[1]. The same poll tracked monthly movement on that question from −31 in January to −35 in February, −40 in March, −46 in April, and −47 in May^[1]. Newsweek noted the May reading is a record low for the metric in this term^[2]. The Economist/YouGov survey (n=1,520 adults, ±3.6pp, fielded May 22–26, 2026) put Trump's overall approval at 34% approve / 59% disapprove, for a net of −26^[3].

• Illinois governor: safe-D → lean-D (source: PVI). Most recent public poll: Pritzker 54%, Bailey 34% (Victory Research for FOX 32 Chicago, n=1,208, ±2.8pp, Nov 24, 2025)^[10].
• Ohio 9th: tilt-R → lean-R. Most recent poll: Merrin 47%, Kaptur 43% (McLaughlin & Associates, n=400, ±4.9pp, Apr 20, 2026, R-aligned internal)^[6].
• Pennsylvania 10th: tilt-R → likely-D. Most recent poll: Stelson 51%, Perry 45% (Normington Petts, n=400, ±4.9pp, Apr 23, 2026, D-aligned internal)^[8].