Trump's inflation approval hits record -47 as House ratings shift right.

The May 2026 Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll (n=1,520, ±2.7pp) recorded President Trump's net approval on prices and inflation at -47, with 25% of respondents approving and 72% disapproving of his handling of the issue; 57% said they strongly disapproved.^[1] The pollster reports that the prices/inflation rating has fallen in every month of 2026: -31 in January, -35 in February, -40 in March, -46 in April, and now -47 in May.^[1] Trump's overall net job approval stood at -23 in the same survey.^[2]

Other trackers point in the same direction. The RealClearPolitics polling average put Trump's disapproval at 58.3% and approval at 39.8% on May 25, with the aggregator's president noting that disapproval now exceeds the post-January 6, 2021 peak of his first term (57.9%).^[3] A Civiqs daily online panel of 106,368 registered voters fielded from January 20, 2025 through May 23, 2026 found net approval negative in 36 states and positive in 14.^[10]

House ratings: MI-4 and PA-10 shift toward Republicans. Two House race ratings moved in the same direction in the past week. Michigan's 4th District slid from lean-R to likely-R, with the forecast margin widening to R+12.1; the underlying signal is a Ragnar Research Partners poll (n=400, ±5.0pp) fielded through March 14, 2026 showing Republican Bill Huizenga at 48% and Democrat Sean McCann at 42%.^[6] An earlier Public Policy Polling survey (n=559, ±4.1pp) through November 21, 2025 had the two within two points (Huizenga 44%, McCann 42%).^[7]

Pennsylvania's 10th District moved from lean-D to tilt-R. Unlike Michigan, the rating shift is sourced to PVI rather than new polling; the most recent surveys in the district still show Democrat Janelle Stelson narrowly ahead of Republican Scott Perry. A Public Policy Polling survey (n=549, ±4.1pp) fielded through November 19, 2025 had Stelson 48%, Perry 44%.^[4] An earlier PPP poll (n=559, margin of error not reported) through July 11, 2025 had Stelson 46%, Perry 43%.^[5] The forecast point margin is R+6.1 with an 80% interval spanning R+21.4 to D+9.3.

Virginia Senate: cluster of new polling. Four Virginia Senate polls have been recorded in the aggregator since the prior report, including three matchups from The Public Sentiment Institute/Virginia Project (n=1,047, ±3.7pp) fielded through May 5, 2026 and sponsored by Virginia Project (R).^[8] Those polls show Senator Mark Warner (D) at 54–55% against three different Republican primary candidates — Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams — each polling at 29%, with independent Mark Moran at 2–3%.^[8] An older Virginia Commonwealth University Commonwealth Poll (n=806, ±4.7pp) fielded through December 18, 2024 had Warner at 45% against then-Governor Glenn Youngkin at 38%.^[9]

The current race rating is safe-D with a forecast point margin of D+14.1.^[8] Polymarket's Democratic-party contract for the seat traded at 0.925 on May 23, against 0.06 for the Republican-party contract.

• Trump approval on prices, May 2026: 25% approve / 72% disapprove (n=1,520, ±2.7pp).^[1]
• RCP average disapproval, May 25, 2026: 58.3%, exceeding the first-term peak of 57.9%.^[3]
• MI-4 rating: lean-R → likely-R; forecast R+12.1.^[6]
• PA-10 rating: lean-D → tilt-R (PVI-driven); forecast R+6.1.^[4]
• VA Senate rating: safe-D; forecast D+14.1; Warner 54–55% across three matchups in May 5 PSI/Virginia Project polling.^[8]