Texas Senate runoff polling shows tight race as Paxton rides Trump endorsement.

Texas Senate runoff. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton enters Tuesday's Republican Senate primary runoff against four-term Senator John Cornyn with President Trump's endorsement, which Paxton received earlier this week and immediately began promoting in statewide ads^[1][2]. According to AdImpact data cited by the campaigns, the Cornyn campaign and aligned groups have spent roughly $90 million on advertising through this week, compared with roughly $10.5 million from Paxton's campaign and its single supportive super PAC; AP reporting characterizes the pro-Cornyn advertising advantage as roughly three-to-one^[1]. More than 250,000 people had already voted in the runoff as of Wednesday^[2].

General-election polling released in April shows a competitive race regardless of which Republican advances. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey (n=1018, ±3.3pp) had Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and leading Paxton 46% to 41%^[6]. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll (n=1200, ±2.8pp) put Talarico ahead 40% to 33% against Cornyn and 42% to 34% against Paxton^[7]. An earlier Impact Research poll for a Democratic-aligned sponsor (n=900, ±3.3pp) showed Talarico over Cornyn 43% to 41%^[3]. No candidate has crossed 50% in any of these surveys.

Prediction markets repriced the race today. Polymarket's implied probability of a Democratic Texas Senate win sat at 44.5% on May 23, while Manifold's contract on the same question moved from 38.6% on May 15 to 49.1% on May 23^[14]. The current race rating is lean-R with a forecast point margin of R+3.6^[14].

Virginia Senate. Four new polls were published today. The Public Sentiment Institute / Virginia Project (an R-aligned sponsor) released three head-to-head matchups, each conducted with the same 1,047-likely-voter sample fielded through May 5 (±3.7pp): Sen. Mark Warner led Republican Kim Farington 54% to 29%, led Bert Mizusawa 55% to 29%, and led David Williams 54% to 29%, with independent Mark Moran drawing 2-3% in each^[8]. A separately scraped Virginia Commonwealth University poll fielded December 18, 2024 (n=806, ±4.7pp) had Warner ahead of Gov. Glenn Youngkin 45% to 38%^[9].

Virginia's current race rating is safe-d with a forecast margin of D+14.1^[8]. Polymarket on May 23 implied 92.5% probability of a Democratic hold; PredictIt's contract for a Democratic win moved to 95% the same day^[8].

House rating shifts. Two competitive House districts moved rightward in today's ratings update. Michigan's 4th, where Republican Bill Huizenga faces Democrat Sean McCann, moved from lean-R to likely-R; the two available public polls are a Ragnar Research Partners survey for an R-aligned sponsor (n=400, ±5.0pp) showing Huizenga 48% to McCann 42%, and a Public Policy Polling survey for a D-aligned sponsor (n=559, ±4.1pp) showing Huizenga 44% to McCann 42%^[11]. The forecast point margin in MI-4 is R+12.1^[11].

Pennsylvania's 10th, held by Rep. Scott Perry, moved from lean-D to tilt-R based on partisan-lean inputs rather than new polling; the two most recent district polls, both from Public Policy Polling for a D-aligned sponsor, show Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson ahead 48% to 44% (n=549, ±4.1pp, November 2025) and 46% to 43% (n=559, July 2025)^[10][12]. The 2024 Perry-Stelson contest was decided by a few thousand votes^[13].

• TX Senate rating: tilt-d; forecast point margin R+3.6^[14].
• VA Senate rating: safe-d; forecast point margin D+14.1^[8].
• MI-4 House rating: likely-r (moved from lean-r); forecast point margin R+12.1^[11].
• PA-10 House rating: tilt-r (moved from lean-d); forecast point margin R+6.1^[10].