Races · Senate · 2026 · Oregon

Senate · class II · open seat

Oregon Senate

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Safe DD +15.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 6 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
98% (D)
2% (R)
Win probability
Democrat98% (D)
Republican2% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +15.8
80% CID+5.6 → D+26.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +15.8 · 80% CI D+5.6 → D+26.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

4.5%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 95¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.6 (10th pctile) to D+26.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 4.5% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +15.8

80% CI: D +5.6 → D +26.1 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	8.01pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.7

80% CI D +7.9 → D +23.5

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +16.7

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

80¢90¢100¢94 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWApr 4Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?”	95¢	6¢	+0¢	—	-1
Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Oregon?”	96¢	2¢	+0¢	—	+1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-08

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$120

D side

$120 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

REVIVE OREGON

For / against split

For Merkley $120

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
REVIVE OREGON		$25.0K	20833%	for David Smith
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$120	100%	for Jeff Merkley

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Apr 12

The Economist

Safe D

May 21

Inside Elections

Safe D

Apr 22

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

May 18

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Mar 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.