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Races · Senate · 2024 · Virginia
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Senate · class I · open seat

Tim Kaine vs Hung Cao

← Utah SenateVermont Senate →
Likely DD +8.4 forecast· 19 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
92% Kaine (D)
8% Cao (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.4 · 80% CI R+3.6 → D+20.4
Actual result D+8.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 92% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.6 (10th pctile) to D+20.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.4
80% CI: R +3.6 → D +20.4 · win prob 92%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used19
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560KAINE 52.1CAO 43.2APR '24JUL '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 19 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 3AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel2,202 · LVNEUTRALD +0.330 tracked-4.0r lean53 · 44
Nov 2Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned53 · 41
Oct 29Chism Strategies520 · LVNEUTRAL——46 · 45
Oct 28Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned52 · 42
Oct 28Roanoke CollegeFor · Roanoke College851 · LVNEUTRALR +1.63 tracked—51 · 40
Oct 27ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned55 · 45
Oct 22The Washington Post/George Mason University+1For · The Washington Post1,004 · LVNEUTRAL——54 · 41
Oct 13ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned56 · 44
Oct 3Christopher Newport University800 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 35
Sep 23Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling860 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned51 · 41
Sep 8Research America+11,000 · ANEUTRAL—-5.0noisy45 · 38
Sep 7The Washington Post/George Mason University+1For · The Washington Post1,005 · RVNEUTRAL——53 · 41
Aug 31ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned55 · 45
Aug 15Roanoke CollegeFor · Roanoke College691 · LVNEUTRALR +1.63 tracked—49 · 38
Jul 14Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 39
Jul 14Mainstreet Research/FAU+2301 · ANEUTRALD +4.74 tracked+0.6aligned42 · 33
Jul 11NYT/Siena College+1For · The New York Times661 · RVNEUTRAL——52 · 34
Jul 2Virginia Commonwealth University809 · ANEUTRAL——49 · 38
Apr 27Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1For · Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines500 · RVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned48 · 36
· 19 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
17Kaine · 100%
DTim Kaine17 endorsers
Most notable · Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez · labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)
Organizations11
Other4
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
RHung Cao0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-20
Hung CaoS4VA00353 ↗
Receipts
$9.8M
Disburse
$9.5M
Cash on hand
$407.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Pharma / health products$8.4K
Top contributors
DOD$13.6K
MASON CAPITAL$12.6K
CACI$12.4K
STATE DEPARTMENT - FORMERLY$11.6K
LEE AND MASON$10.1K
Tim KaineS2VA00142 ↗
Receipts
$18.3M
Disburse
$19.3M
Cash on hand
$2.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$89.8K
Air transport$76.8K
Computers / electronics$28.6K
Top contributors
COVINGTON & BURLING LLP$89.8K
PAUL WEISS$52.4K
CAPITAL GROUP$45.0K
UNITED AIRLINES$44.7K
THE BOEING COMPANY$32.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$355.1K
D side
$142.6K · 40%
R side
$212.5K · 60%
Top spender
UNLEASH AMERICA PAC
For / against split
For Kaine $142.6K
For Cao $212.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
UNLEASH AMERICA PACR$171.5K48%for Hung Cao
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PACD$46.4K13%for Tim Kaine
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUNDR$41.0K12%for Hung Cao
CARE ACTIOND$31.8K9%for Tim Kaine
CLIMATE EMERGENCY ADVOCATESD$26.9K8%for Tim Kaine
RURAL GROUNDGAME 3XD$25.8K7%for Tim Kaine
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$8.5K2%for Tim Kaine

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D4
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Likely D
Aug 25
Elections Daily
Safe D
Aug 8
538
Likely D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Nov 8
RealClearPolitics
Likely D
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Likely D
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified19 / 19deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-20
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks