NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · Senate · 2024 · Tennessee
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class I · open seat

Gloria Johnson vs Marsha Blackburn

← Rhode Island SenateTexas Senate →
Safe RR +31.7 forecast· 11 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Johnson (D)
99% Blackburn (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +31.7 · 80% CI R+43.7 → R+19.7
Actual result R+29.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.7 (10th pctile) to R+19.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.7
80% CI: R +43.7 → R +19.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used11
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+29.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

20253035404550556065BLACKBURN 60.4JOHNSON 35.5BRADSHAW 33.8OCT '23APR '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 11 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned39 · 61
Oct 17, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned39 · 61
Oct 7, 24Targoz Market ResearchFor · Beacon Center of Tennessee1,159 · RVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy29 · 52
Sep 1, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned40 · 60
Jun 30, 24Targoz Market Research1,124 · RVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy32 · 49
Jun 30, 24Targoz Market Research1,124 · RVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy33 · 51
May 8, 24SSRS/Vanderbilt University1,003 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 51
Apr 1, 24Targoz Market Research955 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy29 · 45
Apr 1, 24Targoz Market Research947 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy22 · 46
Oct 15, 23Targoz Market Research850 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy29 · 49
Oct 15, 23Targoz Market Research824 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy36 · 48
· 11 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
Blackburn · 100%4
RMarsha Blackburn4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · former president of the United States
Other2
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
DGloria Johnson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMarquita Bradshaw0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-19
Marsha BlackburnS8TN00337 ↗
Receipts
$13.6M
Disburse
$12.1M
Cash on hand
$5.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$24.4K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$179.2K
RDV CORPORATION$39.6K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$24.4K
CORECIVIC$22.1K
TRACTOR SUPPLY$20.4K
Gloria JohnsonS4TN00526 ↗
Receipts
$7.6M
Disburse
$7.4M
Cash on hand
$142.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$35.8K
Health professionals$19.5K
Govt employees$19.0K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE$20.0K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER$19.5K
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY$15.9K
VUMC$13.3K
FREEMAN WEBB COM$11.6K
Marquita BradshawOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$39.7K
Disburse
$39.6K
Cash on hand
$78.65
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$250
Top contributors
SIERRA CLUB$500
AGENCY$350
CANDIDATE FOR KY STATE SENATE$330
SOLIDARITY$250
MADONNA UNIVERSITY$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$891.8K
D side
$8.4K · 1%
R side
$883.3K · 99%
Top spender
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF…
For / against split
For Johnson $8.4K
For Blackburn $883.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGY ASSOCIATION PACR$581.1K65%for Marsha Blackburn
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$200.0K22%for Marsha Blackburn
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PACR$101.5K11%for Marsha Blackburn
TENNESSEE IMMIGRANT AND REFUGEE RIGHTS COALITION VOTES ACTION PACD$7.8K1%for Gloria Johnson
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$682.280%for Marsha Blackburn
MCMINN COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTYD$6750%for Gloria Johnson
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Gloria Johnson
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUNDR$2.750%for Marsha Blackburn

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R9
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 8
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe R
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe R
May 3
538
Safe R
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 8
RealClearPolitics
Safe R
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified10 / 11deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-19
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks