| 10/28/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡559d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
559d old Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Marsha Blackburn 61.0 · Gloria Johnson 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/18/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡569d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
569d old Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Marsha Blackburn 61.0 · Gloria Johnson 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/8/2024 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 1159 | — | RV | 🟡579d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
579d old Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 52.0 · Gloria Johnson 29.0 | pollarch |
| 9/2/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡615d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
615d old Poll was fielded 615 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Marsha Blackburn 60.0 · Gloria Johnson 40.0 | pollarch |
| 7/1/2024 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 1124 | — | RV | 🟡678d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
678d old Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Gloria Johnson 32.0 | pollarch |
| 7/1/2024 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 1124 | — | RV | 🟡678d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
678d old Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 51.0 · Marquita Bradshaw 33.0 | pollarch |
| 5/9/2024 | SSRS/Vanderbilt University | 1.00 | — | 1003 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡731d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
731d old Poll was fielded 731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Marsha Blackburn 51.0 · Gloria Johnson 40.0 | pollarch |
| 4/2/2024 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 955 | — | LV | 🟡768d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
768d old Poll was fielded 768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 45.0 · Gloria Johnson 29.0 | pollarch |
| 4/2/2024 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 947 | — | LV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡768d old+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
768d old Poll was fielded 768 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 46.0 · Marquita Bradshaw 22.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2023 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 850 | — | LV | 🟡937d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
937d old Poll was fielded 937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 49.0 · Gloria Johnson 29.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2023 | Targoz Market Research | 0.77 | —(R+1.0) | 824 | — | LV | 🟡937d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
937d old Poll was fielded 937 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.
| Marsha Blackburn 48.0 · Marquita Bradshaw 36.0 | pollarch |