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Races · Senate · 2024 · New Jersey
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Senate · class I · open seat

Andy Kim vs Curtis Bashaw

← Nebraska SenateNew Mexico Senate →
Safe DD +17.0 forecast· 15 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kim (D)
1% Bashaw (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +17.0 · 80% CI D+5.0 → D+29.0
Actual result D+9.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.0 (10th pctile) to D+29.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.0
80% CI: D +5.0 → D +29.0 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used15
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

051015202530354045505560KIM 54.1BASHAW 35.9MENENDEZ 4.7APR '24JUL '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 15 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2, 24Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned56 · 38
Oct 26, 24Fairleigh Dickinson University+2For · New Jersey Globe806 · RVNEUTRAL—-12.1decoupled57 · 39
Oct 23, 24Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned55 · 38
Oct 21, 24Rutgers University+1For · New Jersey Globe929 · RVNEUTRAL——49 · 26
Aug 14, 24National Research Inc.+1For · New Jersey Globe600 · LVR-LEAN——38 · 33
Jul 7, 24Expedition Strategies+1272 · LVNEUTRAL——50 · 35
Jul 1, 24United 2024+1For · New Jersey Globe477 · RVR-LEAN——41 · 39
Jul 1, 24United 2024+1For · New Jersey Globe477 · RVR-LEAN——35 · 33
Jun 26, 24co/efficientFor · co/efficient810 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean41 · 34
Jun 26, 24co/efficientFor · co/efficient810 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean39 · 33
Apr 7, 24Fairleigh Dickinson University+1For · Fairleigh Dickinson University809 · RVNEUTRAL—-12.1decoupled47 · 38
Apr 7, 24Fairleigh Dickinson University+1For · Fairleigh Dickinson University809 · RVNEUTRAL—-12.1decoupled44 · 38
Mar 28, 24Emerson College+2For · The Hill1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned—
Sep 26, 23Public Policy Polling565 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy20
Sep 26, 23Public Policy Polling565 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy44
· 15 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAndy Kim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RCurtis Bashaw0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IBob Menendez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-10-17
Andy KimS4NJ00466 ↗
Receipts
$12.4M
Disburse
$12.0M
Cash on hand
$621.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$86.1K
Securities & investment$39.1K
Internet$37.0K
Top contributors
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY$64.0K
CENTERVIEW PARTNERS$46.2K
GOOGLE$37.0K
CENTERVIEW$24.6K
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$22.1K
Curtis BashawS4NJ00540 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$67.6K
Debts
$2.1M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ICONA RESORTS$16.5K
CAPE RESORTS$13.7K
SAKER SHOPRITE INC$13.2K
CARITAS CONSTRUCTION$13.0K
ICONA$12.5K
Bob MenendezOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$9.0M
Cash on hand
$797.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$59.9K
Lawyers / law firms$26.5K
Top contributors
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$26.9K
APOLLO$19.8K
TOM JAMES COMPANY$15.4K
BAYVIEW ASSET MANAGEMENT$14.9K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$14.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.1M
D side
$1.8M · 59%
R side
$1.3M · 41%
Top spender
UNITED 2024
For / against split
For Kim $1.8M
Against Kim $649.6K
For Bashaw $649.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
UNITED 2024R$1.3M41%for Curtis Bashaw
LEADERSHIP WITH INTEGRITY PACD$884.9K28%for Andy Kim
WORKING NEW JERSEYD$701.4K22%for Andy Kim
WITH HONOR FUND II, INC.D$80.0K3%for Andy Kim
MAKE THE ROAD ACTION INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEED$78.3K2%for Andy Kim

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D7
Likely D2
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Mar 24
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe D
Oct 29
Elections Daily
Safe D
May 3
538
Likely D
Oct 27
Inside Elections
Safe D
Feb 8
RealClearPolitics
Likely D
Aug 4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified13 / 15deterministic
Polls flagged2needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-10-17
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks