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Races · Senate · 2024 · Nebraska
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Senate · class I · open seat

Nebraska Senate

← Nebraska SenateNew Jersey Senate →
Safe RR +26.7 forecast· 20 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% Fischer (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +26.7 · 80% CI R+38.7 → R+14.7
Actual result R+6.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.7 (10th pctile) to R+14.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +26.7
80% CI: R +38.7 → R +14.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used20
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

20253035404550FISCHER 48.1OSBORN 45.4NOV '23MAY '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 20 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 30, 24Change Research+1600 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy47
Oct 27, 24Torchlight Strategies605 · LVR-LEAN——51
Oct 27, 24Economist/YouGov1,202 · LVNEUTRAL——50
Oct 25, 24NYT/Siena College+1For · The New York Times1,194 · LVNEUTRAL——48
Oct 20, 24Change Research+1815 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy46
Oct 14, 24Torchlight Strategies+1For · The Hill625 · LVR-LEAN——51
Oct 11, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA563 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned44
Oct 7, 24Torchlight Strategies+1For · Punchbowl News800 · LVR-LEAN——48
Oct 7, 24Change Research+1895 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy43
Oct 2, 24Impact Research+1600 · LVD-LEAN—+10.7d lean46
Sep 30, 24The Bullfinch Group+1400 · LVNEUTRALD +6.33 tracked+5.9d lean42
Sep 22, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA558 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned44
Aug 28, 24Global Strategy Group600 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean43
Aug 26, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,293 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned39
Aug 11, 24YouGov500 · RVD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean43
Jul 10, 24Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact ResearchFor · Fischer campaign says Fischer is up 26 points500 · RVNEUTRAL——42
Jul 10, 24Torchlight StrategiesFor · Nebraska Examiner698 · LVR-LEAN——50
Jun 4, 24Global Strategy Group600 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.6d lean49
Apr 24, 24Public Policy Polling+1737 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy37
Nov 15, 23Change Research+11,048 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy38
· 20 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDeb Fischer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDan Osborn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-12
Dan OsbornS4NE00207 ↗
Receipts
$15.1M
Disburse
$15.1M
Cash on hand
$63.2K
Debts
$9.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Deb FischerS2NE00094 ↗
Receipts
$6.6M
Disburse
$7.9M
Cash on hand
$25.2K
Debts
$95.5K
Top industries
Securities & investment$36.5K
Electric utilities$19.8K
Lawyers / law firms$18.1K
Top contributors
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT$39.6K
UNION PACIFIC$25.0K
EDISON CHOUEST OFFSHORE$19.8K
DISH NETWORK$19.8K
APOLLO$19.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$17.9M
D side
$14.8M · 82%
R side
$3.2M · 18%
Top spender
RETIRE CAREER POLIT…
For / against split
Against Fischer $14.8M
For Fischer $3.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
RETIRE CAREER POLITICIANSD$21.6M121%against Deb Fischer
GENBLUE PACI$3.1M17%for Dan Osborn
ESAFUNDR$2.7M15%for Deb Fischer
BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECTI$2.4M13%for Dan Osborn
CFFE PACI$2.3M13%for Dan Osborn
COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUNDI$1.8M10%for Dan Osborn
IN UNION USAD$453.9K3%against Deb Fischer
RAILROADERS FOR PUBLIC SAFETYD$425.3K2%against Deb Fischer

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R5
Likely R3
CNalysis
Tilt R
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 20
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Likely R
Oct 29
Elections Daily
Likely R
Nov 3
538
Likely R
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 17
RealClearPolitics
Lean R
Oct 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 24
Split Ticket
Lean R
Oct 28

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified20 / 20deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks