Races · Senate · 2022 · South Carolina
Senate · class III · open seat
Krystle Matthews vs Tim Scott
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.0 (10th pctile) to R+13.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.9
80% CI: R +38.0 → R +13.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+25.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+1 | 600 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 37 · 54 |
| Mar 12 | Moore Information Group+2 | 500 · LV | R-LEAN | R +10.04 tracked | -6.5r lean | 25 · 57 |
Endorsements · 14 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet14
Endorsements tracked
Krystle Matthews0 · 0%
Tim Scott14 · 100%
Total14
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTim Scott14 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials12
Federal 10State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 12
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mitch McConnell · Minority Leader of the United States Senate (2021-2025), U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present)
- Nikki Haley · former United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)
- Lindsey Graham · U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)
- Mike Pompeo · former U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021)
- Jeff Duncan · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 3rd congressional district (2011–2025)
- Joe Wilson · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 2nd congressional district (2001–present)
- Nancy Mace · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district (2021–present)
- Ralph Norman · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 5th congressional district (2017–present)
- Tom Rice · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 7th congressional district (2013–2023)
- William Timmons · U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 4th congressional district (2019–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- South Carolina Republican Party · uth Carolina Republican Party (2017–present)
Other1
Other · 1
- Pro-Israel America
DKrystle Matthews0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILarry Adams Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15Tim ScottS4SC00240 ↗
Receipts
$43.1M
Disburse
$29.0M
Cash on hand
$21.8M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$118.6K
Securities & investment · $118.6K
- Goldman Sachs · $51.4K
- Blackstone · $40.7K
- Apollo Global Management · $26.5K
Individuals $118.6K · PACs $0
Insurance$41.4K
Insurance · $41.4K
- Metlife · $41.4K
Individuals $41.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NOT PROVIDED$600.5K
HOME$76.0K
GOLDMAN SACHS$51.4K
METLIFE$41.4K
BLACKSTONE$40.7K
Krystle MatthewsS2SC00103 ↗
Receipts
$135.4K
Disburse
$94.2K
Cash on hand
$35.2K
Debts
$30.3K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$2.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $2.8K
- Anastopoulo Law Firm · $2.0K
- Condon Family Law LLC · $800
Individuals $2.8K · PACs $0
Education$1.2K
Education · $1.2K
- Charleston County School District · $1.2K
Individuals $1.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MZEKEWE LTD CO$3.0K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS$2.9K
GET RIGHT, INC.$2.0K
ANASTOPOULO LAW FIRM$2.0K
CHARLESTON COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT$1.2K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$4.3M
D side
$21.5K · 0%
R side
$4.3M · 100%
Top spender
OPPORTUNITY MATTERS…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5M | 58% | for Tim Scott |
| AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.0M | 23% | for Tim Scott |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $538.0K | 12% | for Tim Scott |
| ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $94.7K | 2% | for Tim Scott |
| HONORING AMERICAN LAW ENFORCEMENT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $93.9K | 2% | for Tim Scott |
| CARE IN ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $14.2K | 0% | for Krystle Matthews |
| WFP NATIONAL PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $7.2K | 0% | for Krystle Matthews |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15
Endorsements14 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks