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Races · Senate · 2022 · Louisiana
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Gary Chambers vs John Kennedy

← Kentucky SenateMaryland Senate →
Safe RR +42.4 forecast· 3 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Chambers (D)
99% Kennedy (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +42.4 · 80% CI R+54.4 → R+30.4
Actual result R+43.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.4 (10th pctile) to R+30.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +42.4
80% CI: R +54.4 → R +30.4 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used3
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+43.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055KENNEDY 52.4MIXON 13.2CHAMBERS 10.6STEIB 5.9MAR '22JUL '22OCT '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 3 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 10Public Policy Polling+1633 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy8 · 53
Sep 6Echelon Insights+1506 · RVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy16 · 51
Mar 22JMC Analytics600 · LVNEUTRAL——14 · 53

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DGary Chambers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJohn Kennedy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLuke Mixon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSyrita Steib0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-10
John KennedyS4LA00065 ↗
Receipts
$34.3M
Disburse
$30.1M
Cash on hand
$9.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$46.5K
Top contributors
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$54.0K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$23.3K
BLACKSTONE$23.2K
INVESTMENT PROPERTY EXCHANGE SERVICES,$17.5K
RELIANCE SYSTEMS INC.$17.4K
Luke MixonS2LA00135 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$92.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$14.1K
Education$10.3K
Govt employees$6.2K
Oil & gas$5.6K
Top contributors
TIPITINA, INC.$13.0K
LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY$10.3K
COX, COX, FILO, CAMEL & WILSON$10.0K
NEBLETT, BEARD, & ARSENAULT$8.7K
THE CHEEK LAW FIRM, LLC$8.3K
Gary ChambersOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$3.0K
Top contributors
BLUEPRINT GROUP$8.7K
VERANO$5.9K
U OF MIAMI$5.6K
SILLY GOOSE PRODUCTIONS$5.3K
GTI$3.2K
Syrita SteibOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$250.6K
Disburse
$251.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
Education$9.9K
Restaurants & drinking$3.9K
Health professionals$2.9K
Top contributors
OPERATION RESTORATION$9.0K
SMITH$5.8K
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY$4.2K
NEAUXLA TAX CAFE LLC$3.9K
RESTAURANTEUR$3.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$668.0K
D side
$10.8K · 2%
R side
$657.2K · 98%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVE LOUISIANA
For / against split
Against Kennedy $10.8K
Against Mixon $4.8K
For Kennedy $652.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONSERVATIVE LOUISIANAR$309.6K46%for John Kennedy
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$300.0K45%for John Kennedy
ANIMAL WELLNESS ACTIONR$47.6K7%for John Kennedy
REALLY AMERICAN PACD$5.9K1%against John Kennedy
VOTE LOCAL VOTE BLUED$4.9K1%against John Kennedy

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 18
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jan 6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 2

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks