Races · Senate · 2022 · Kentucky
Senate · class III · open seat
Charles Booker vs Rand Paul
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+31.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.7 (10th pctile) to R+19.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +31.7
80% CI: R +43.7 → R +19.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 2 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+23.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 22 | Mason-Dixon+1 | 625 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +0.128 tracked | -2.9noisy | 39 · 55 |
| Feb 3, 21 | Mason-Dixon+2For · The Courier-Journal | 625 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +0.128 tracked | -2.9noisy | 47 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
5
Endorsements tracked
Charles Booker16 · 76%
Rand Paul5 · 24%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DCharles Booker16 endorsers
Most notable · Bernie Sanders · U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present)
Other7
Other · 7
- Ben Crump · civil rights lawyer
- Brand New Congress
- Democracy for America
- IUE · CWA – Louisville Chapter
- Indivisible
- March On
- Sunrise Movement
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AFL–CIO · y AFL–CIO
- Communications Workers of America · Louisville Chapter
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Working Families Party
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Bernie Sanders · U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present)
- Elizabeth Warren · U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)
- John Yarmuth · U.S. representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023)
RRand Paul5 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Other3
Other · 3
- Club for Growth
- FreedomWorks
- Turning Point Action
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Allison Ball · Kentucky state treasurer (2016–2024)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15Rand PaulS0KY00156 ↗
Receipts
$25.0M
Disburse
$21.4M
Cash on hand
$5.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$16.5K
Real estate · $16.5K
- Reitred · $16.5K
Individuals $16.5K · PACs $0
Insurance$13.0K
Insurance · $13.0K
- Tower Hill Insurance · $13.0K
Individuals $13.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$93.4K
US GOVERNMENT$18.7K
MASON CAPITAL$17.4K
REITRED$16.5K
REIRED$14.3K
Charles BookerS0KY00420 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.1M
D side
$251.5K · 5%
R side
$4.8M · 95%
Top spender
KENTUCKY FREEDOM PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENTUCKY FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.2M | 83% | for Rand Paul |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $304.8K | 6% | for Rand Paul |
| SENATE CONSERVATIVES ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $189.4K | 4% | for Rand Paul |
| ONWARD KENTUCKY super pac · boosts D
| D | $104.1K | 2% | against Rand Paul |
| THE PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGN super pac · boosts R
| R | $102.8K | 2% | for Rand Paul |
| NEW POWER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $48.3K | 1% | for Charles Booker |
| MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.5K | 0% | for Charles Booker |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks