Races · Senate · 2022 · Kansas
Senate · class III · open seat
Mark Holland vs Jerry Moran
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.6 (10th pctile) to R+15.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.6
80% CI: R +39.6 → R +15.6 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+23.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 33 · 54 |
| Oct 27 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 54 |
| Sep 17 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 33 · 45 |
| Sep 16 | Emerson College | 1,000 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 45 |
| Sep 6 | Echelon Insights+2 | 392 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 35 · 54 |
| Aug 9 | Battleground Connect | 1,074 · LV | R-LEAN | — | — | 37 · 58 |
Endorsements · 4 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet4
Endorsements tracked
Mark Holland0 · 0%
Jerry Moran4 · 100%
Total4
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJerry Moran4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials3
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mike Pence · 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mike Pompeo · 70th secretary of state of the United States (2018–2021), 6th director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018)
Other1
Other · 1
- Pro-Israel America
DMark Holland0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMMark R. Holland0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-04Jerry MoranS0KS00091 ↗
Receipts
$5.5M
Disburse
$4.7M
Cash on hand
$3.4M
Debts
$70.4K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$36.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $36.0K
- Kit Bond Strategies, LLP · $36.0K
Individuals $36.0K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$26.0K
Securities & investment · $26.0K
- Apollo Global Management · $26.0K
Individuals $26.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INDIAN TRIBE$42.5K
KIT BOND STRATEGIES, LLP$36.0K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$26.0K
GENERAL ATOMICS$22.1K
DISH NETWORK$19.0K
Mark Holland
Receipts
$905.1K
Disburse
$879.5K
Cash on hand
$25.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Casinos / gambling$4.4K
Casinos / gambling · $4.4K
- Pricemgmtco · $4.4K
Individuals $4.4K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$3.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $3.9K
- Glassman, Bird, & Powell LLP · $3.9K
Individuals $3.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$5.8K
MBIO DIAGNOSTICS$5.8K
HUGHES HUBBARD & REED$5.8K
GEORGE K. BAUM & COMPANY$5.8K
LIGHTDECK DIAGNOSTICS$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$592.5K
D side
$3.0K · 0%
R side
$589.5K · 100%
Top spender
VISIONARY LEADERS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VISIONARY LEADERS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $318.3K | 54% | for Jerry Moran |
| AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $104.0K | 18% | for Jerry Moran |
| CAREER EDUCATION PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $90.0K | 15% | for Jerry Moran |
| KANSANS FOR LIFE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $66.7K | 11% | for Jerry Moran |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $7.9K | 1% | for Jerry Moran |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-04
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks