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Races · Senate · 2020 · Virginia
Senate · class II · open seat

Mark Warner vs Daniel Gade

← Texas SenateWest Virginia Senate →
Safe DD +16.6 forecast· 16 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Warner (D)
1% Gade (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +16.6 · 80% CI D+4.6 → D+28.6
Actual result D+12.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.6 (10th pctile) to D+28.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.6
80% CI: D +4.6 → D +28.6 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used16
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+12.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560WARNER 55.3GADE 40.2AUG '20SEP '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 16 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 31Swayable+2For · Swayable283 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean61 · 39
Oct 31Data for Progress+1690 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned57 · 42
Oct 28Roanoke CollegeFor · Roanoke College802 · LVNEUTRALR +1.63 tracked—55 · 39
Oct 26Christopher Newport UniversityFor · Christopher Newport University908 · LVNEUTRAL——57 · 37
Oct 25Swayable+2For · Swayable332 · LVD-LEAND +7.817 tracked+2.5d lean60 · 40
Oct 21Virginia Commonwealth University709 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 38
Oct 18Schar School/Washington Post+1For · The Washington Post908 · LVNEUTRAL——57 · 39
Oct 13Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos1,231 · LVD-LEAND +4.05 tracked-0.9aligned54 · 43
Oct 11Reconnect Research/Roanoke CollegeFor · The Reconnect Research602 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 38
Oct 11Roanoke College/Reconnect Research602 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 38
Oct 10Cygnal607 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 44
Sep 24CygnalFor · Link Situs Slot Online Resmi Dengan Bocoran Jam Gacor Dan RTP Tinggi Paling Akurat600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned51 · 41
Sep 20Christopher Newport UniversityFor · wasoncenter-rb796 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 39
Sep 6Virginia Commonwealth University692 · LVNEUTRAL——55 · 38
Aug 21Roanoke CollegeFor · Roanoke College566 · LVNEUTRALR +1.63 tracked—55 · 34
May 15Roanoke CollegeFor · Roanoke College563 · LVNEUTRALR +1.63 tracked—48
· 16 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
Gade · 100%11
RDaniel Gade11 endorsers
Most notable · Don Bolduc · brigadier general and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire
Other9
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 0Local 0
DMark Warner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Mark WarnerS6VA00093 ↗
Receipts
$13.2M
Disburse
$15.9M
Cash on hand
$388.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$102.6K
Securities & investment$67.1K
Air transport$38.1K
Computers / electronics$24.3K
Top contributors
WACHTELL LIPTON ROSEN & KATZ$82.9K
UNITED AIRLINES$38.1K
GOLDMAN SACHS$37.5K
MORGAN STANLEY$29.6K
MASTERCARD$26.2K
Daniel GadeS0VA00146 ↗
Receipts
$4.9M
Disburse
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$7.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$11.2K
Crop production$10.0K
Securities & investment$8.4K
Air transport$8.2K
Computers / electronics$7.4K
Top contributors
OURISMAN$11.2K
TSSI$11.2K
HOLTZMAN OIL GROUP$11.2K
ENGEL FAMILY FARMS$10.0K
KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP$9.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$299.7K
D side
$10.4K · 3%
R side
$289.3K · 97%
Top spender
RESTORATION PAC
For / against split
For Warner $10.3K
Against Gade $93.22
Against Warner $211.5K
For Gade $77.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
RESTORATION PACR$211.5K71%against Mark Warner
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.R$29.5K10%for Daniel Gade
MIDDLE RESOLUTION FEDERAL PAC INCR$26.9K9%for Daniel Gade
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$13.9K5%for Daniel Gade
HEALTH JUSTICE FOR ALLD$7.7K3%for Mark Warner
THE FAMILY FOUNDATION ACTIONR$7.5K2%for Daniel Gade
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$2.0K1%for Mark Warner
LOUDOUN COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEED$2420%for Mark Warner
JDCA PACD$1680%for Mark Warner
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$93.220%against Daniel Gade

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 28
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
538
Safe D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified16 / 16deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements11 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks