| 11/1/2020 | Swayable | 0.49 | L(D+7.7) | 283 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+7.7pt🟠weight 0.49+4- 🟠
historical bias D+7.7pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟠
weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
n=283 Sample size of 283 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.8pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2016d old Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 61.0 · Daniel Gade 39.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2020 | Data for Progress | 1.00 | —(D+1.0) | 690 | — | LV | 🟡2016d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
2016d old Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
| Mark Warner 57.0 · Daniel Gade 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2020 | Roanoke College | 1.00 | —(R+1.6) | 802 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡2019d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2019d old Poll was fielded 2019 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/27/2020 | Christopher Newport University | 1.00 | — | 908 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2021d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2021d old Poll was fielded 2021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 57.0 · Daniel Gade 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2020 | Swayable | 0.49 | L(D+7.7) | 332 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+7.7pt🟠weight 0.49+4- 🟠
historical bias D+7.7pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+7.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟠
weight 0.49 Aggregation weight is 0.49 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
n=332 Sample size of 332 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.4pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
2022d old Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 60.0 · Daniel Gade 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/22/2020 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 1.00 | — | 709 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2026d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2026d old Poll was fielded 2026 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/19/2020 | Schar School/Washington Post | 1.00 | — | 908 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2029d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2029d old Poll was fielded 2029 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Washington Post Commissioned by The Washington Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mark Warner 57.0 · Daniel Gade 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/14/2020 | Civiqs/Daily Kos | 0.91 | L(D+4.0) | 1231 | — | LV | 🟡2034d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
2034d old Poll was fielded 2034 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 54.0 · Daniel Gade 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2020 | Reconnect Research/Roanoke College | 1.00 | — | 602 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2036d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2036d old Poll was fielded 2036 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2020 | Roanoke College/Reconnect Research | 1.00 | — | 602 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2036d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2036d old Poll was fielded 2036 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 38.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2020 | Cygnal | 1.04 | R(D+1.8) | 607 | — | LV | 🟡2037d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
2037d old Poll was fielded 2037 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mark Warner 51.0 · Daniel Gade 44.0 | pollarch |
| 9/25/2020 | Cygnal | 1.04 | R(D+1.8) | 600 | — | LV | 🟡2053d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
2053d old Poll was fielded 2053 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mark Warner 51.0 · Daniel Gade 41.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2020 | Christopher Newport University | 1.00 | — | 796 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2057d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2057d old Poll was fielded 2057 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 52.0 · Daniel Gade 39.0 | pollarch |
| 9/7/2020 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 1.00 | — | 692 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡2071d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
2071d old Poll was fielded 2071 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 38.0 | pollarch |
| 8/22/2020 | Roanoke College | 1.00 | —(R+1.6) | 566 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡2087d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2087d old Poll was fielded 2087 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 55.0 · Daniel Gade 34.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2020 | Roanoke College | 1.00 | —(R+1.6) | 563 | — | LV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡2185d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
2185d old Poll was fielded 2185 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mark Warner 48.0 | pollarch |