Races · Senate · 2020 · Mississippi

Senate · class II · open seat

Mike Espy vs Cindy Hyde-Smith

← Minnesota Senate Montana Senate →

Safe RR +15.3 forecast· 11 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Espy (D)
99% Hyde-Smith (R)
Win probability
Mike Espy1% (D)
Cindy Hyde-Smith99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +15.3
80% CIR+27.3 → R+3.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +15.3 · 80% CI R+27.3 → R+3.3
Actual result R+10.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.3 (10th pctile) to R+3.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +15.3

80% CI: R +27.3 → R +3.3 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	11
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+10.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
2530354045505560HYDE-SMITH 50.8ESPY 44.2JAN '20JUN '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 11 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 31	Data for Progress+1	562 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 50
Oct 25	Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos	507 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	-0.9aligned	44 · 52
Oct 22	The Progress Campaign	— · unknown	D-LEAN	—	—	43 · 48
Aug 29	Tyson Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	40 · 41
Aug 8	Garin-Hart-Yang ResearchFor · Mississippi Today	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 47
May 27	Public Policy Polling	871 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	41 · 49
May 6	Impact Management Group	606 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 58
Mar 11	Tyson Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	28 · 54
Mar 6	The Progress Campaign	826 · unknown	D-LEAN	—	—	44 · 52
Feb 27	Mason-Dixon+1	625 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.128 tracked	-2.9noisy	43 · 53
Jan 6	Chism Strategies	618 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	36 · 44

· 11 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

2Espy · 67%
Hyde-Smith · 33%1
Endorsements tracked
Mike Espy2 · 67%
Cindy Hyde-Smith1 · 33%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DMike Espy2 endorsers

Most notable · DSCC

Other2

RCindy Hyde-Smith1 endorser

Most notable · Maggie's List

Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Cindy Hyde-SmithS8MS00261 ↗

Receipts

$3.4M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$168.5K

Debts

$60.0K

Top industries

Oil & gas$22.4K

Crop production$10.8K

Top contributors

ERGON$13.9K

WADE INC$11.6K

PRUET OIL$11.2K

LAS VEGAS SANDS CORPORATION$11.2K

SEEMANN COMPOSITES INC$11.2K

Mike EspyS8MS00287 ↗

Receipts

$12.3M

Disburse

$12.4M

Cash on hand

$175.6K

Debts

Top industries

Computers / electronics$48.1K

Internet$45.4K

Securities & investment$8.7K

Education$6.2K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$37.0K

AMAZON$14.0K

MICROSOFT$11.9K

BAIN CAPITAL$8.7K

FACEBOOK$8.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.1M

D side

$1.0M · 88%

R side

$136.8K · 12%

Top spender

FRONT ROW PAC

For / against split

For Espy $406.6K

Against Hyde-Smith $606.0K

Against Espy $86.1K

For Hyde-Smith $50.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FRONT ROW PAC	D	$390.6K	34%	against Cindy Hyde-Smith
MARCH ON PAC	D	$148.3K	13%	for Mike Espy
ONE COUNTRY FUND	D	$146.1K	13%	for Mike Espy
PROTECTING OUR VALUES	D	$130.0K	11%	against Cindy Hyde-Smith
PAC FOR A CHANGE	D	$120.0K	10%	against Cindy Hyde-Smith
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PAC	D	$46.2K	4%	for Mike Espy
PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY	D	$39.0K	3%	for Mike Espy
LET AMERICA WORK	R	$36.1K	3%	for Cindy Hyde-Smith
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$14.4K	1%	for Cindy Hyde-Smith

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R4

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Oct 28

DDHQ

Likely R

Nov 2

538

Likely R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified11 / 11deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks