Races · Senate · 2020 · MS
Senate · class II · open seat

Mike Espy vs Cindy Hyde-Smith

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Likely R — · 11 polls · 0 markets Last poll 2016d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 11 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R

likely-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 11 results

11 of 11 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/1/2020Data for Progress1.00—(D+1.0)562—LV
2016d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 2016d old
    Poll was fielded 2016 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 50.0 · Mike Espy 47.0pollarch
10/26/2020Civiqs/Daily Kos0.91L(D+4.0)507—LV
2022d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 2022d old
    Poll was fielded 2022 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 52.0 · Mike Espy 44.0pollarch
10/23/2020The Progress Campaign1.00L——unknown
no scored polls2025d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2025d old
    Poll was fielded 2025 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 48.0 · Mike Espy 43.0pollarch
8/30/2020Tyson Group1.00—600—LV
no scored polls2079d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2079d old
    Poll was fielded 2079 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 41.0 · Mike Espy 40.0pollarch
8/9/2020Garin-Hart-Yang Research1.00—600—LV
no scored polls2100d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2100d old
    Poll was fielded 2100 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 47.0 · Mike Espy 42.0pollarch
5/28/2020Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)871—unknown
2173d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 2173d old
    Poll was fielded 2173 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 49.0 · Mike Espy 41.0pollarch
5/7/2020Impact Management Group1.00—606—LV
no scored polls2194d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2194d old
    Poll was fielded 2194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 58.0 · Mike Espy 31.0pollarch
3/12/2020Tyson Group1.00—600—LV
no scored polls2250d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2250d old
    Poll was fielded 2250 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 54.0 · Mike Espy 28.0pollarch
3/7/2020The Progress Campaign1.00L826—unknown
no scored polls2255d old+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2255d old
    Poll was fielded 2255 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 52.0 · Mike Espy 44.0pollarch
2/28/2020Mason-Dixon0.56R(R+2.4)625—LV
bias R+2.4pt2263d old+3
  • bias R+2.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.4pt.
  • 2263d old
    Poll was fielded 2263 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 53.0 · Mike Espy 43.0pollarch
1/7/2020Chism Strategies1.00—618—LV
no scored polls2315d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 2315d old
    Poll was fielded 2315 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Cindy Hyde-Smith 44.0 · Mike Espy 36.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 8 total
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
1 endorsement · source
Other (1)
  • Maggie's List — [ 6 ]
Mike Espy (D)
7 endorsements · source
Elected officials (1)
  • [ 14 ] — he Senate [ 14 ]
Other (6)
  • 50 — 60%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • DSCC — [ 13 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 15 ]
  • ≥90%

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Total IE spending
$1.1M
For candidates
$457K
Against candidates
$692K
Latest filing: 11/20/2020
Source: FEC Schedule E
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
$51K for · $606K against
Cash on hand
$169K
Total raised (cycle)
$3.4M
Total spent
$3.3M
Debts
$60K
Source: FEC
Mike Espy (D)
$407K for · $86K against
Cash on hand
$176K
Total raised (cycle)
$12.3M
Total spent
$12.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

5 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely R Oct 29 — -9.0 —
DDHQ Likely R Nov 3 — -9.0 —
538 Likely R Nov 2 — -9.0 —
Inside Elections Safe R Oct 28 — -18.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R Nov 2 — -9.0 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 67 months ago (11/1/2020) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 9/4/2020 Likely R R+13.4 via polls held 60d
  • 7/6/2020 Safe R R+15.8 via polls