Races · Senate · 2020 · Minnesota

Senate · class II · open seat

Minnesota Senate

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Likely DD +12.8 forecast· 23 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% (D)
2% Lewis (R)
Win probability
Democrat98% (D)
Jason Lewis2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.8
80% CID+0.8 → D+24.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.8 · 80% CI D+0.8 → D+24.8
Actual result Tina Smith +5.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.8 (10th pctile) to D+24.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.8

80% CI: D +0.8 → D +24.8 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	23
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Tina Smith +5.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
3236404448LEWIS 41.6MAY '20AUG '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 23 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 31	Research Co.+1For · Research Co	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	39
Oct 31	Data for Progress+1	1,259 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	44
Oct 31	Swayable+1For · Swayable	430 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.817 tracked	+2.5d lean	46
Oct 29	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	770 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	42
Oct 29	Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	1,138 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44
Oct 28	St. Cloud State University+2For · St. Cloud Times	372 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	36
Oct 26	SurveyUSA+1For · KSTP	649 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	42
Oct 25	Gravis Marketing+1For · any campaign committee or other organization and was paid	657 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	39
Oct 19	Civiqs/Daily KosFor · Civiqs/Daily Kos	840 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	-0.9aligned	43
Oct 19	SurveyUSA+1For · KSTP	625 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	42
Oct 14	Change Research+1For · MinnPost	1,021 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.718 tracked	+5.7noisy	44
Oct 5	SurveyUSA+2For · ABC 6 NEWS	929 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	37
Sep 23	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	35
Sep 22	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy+1For · MPR News	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41
Sep 16	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	718 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	36
Sep 10	CBS News/YouGov+1	1,087 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	40
Sep 9	Siena College/NYT Upshot	814 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	40
Sep 6	SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA	553 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.194 tracked	-0.5aligned	36
Sep 3	Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling	877 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	41
Aug 31	Harper Polling+1	501 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.7d lean	41
Aug 9	Emerson College+1	733 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45
Jul 22	Public Policy Polling	1,218 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	39
May 27	Harper Polling+1	510 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.7d lean	35

· 23 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

Lewis · 100%3
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Jason Lewis3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RJason Lewis3 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th president of the United States

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Jason LewisS0MN00328 ↗

Receipts

$7.1M

Disburse

$6.7M

Cash on hand

$360.5K

Debts

$32.7K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$613.1K

D side

$304.1K · 50%

R side

$309.0K · 50%

Top spender

RIGHT NOW USA

For / against split

Against Lewis $304.1K

For Lewis $309.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
RIGHT NOW USA	R	$184.0K	30%	for Jason Lewis
NARAL PRO-CHOICE AMERICA	D	$178.4K	29%	against Jason Lewis
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF MINNESOTA POLITICAL ACTION FUND	D	$121.8K	20%	against Jason Lewis
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$59.5K	10%	for Jason Lewis
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$25.3K	4%	for Jason Lewis

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

Likely D2

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 28

DDHQ

Likely D

Nov 2

538

Safe D

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified23 / 23deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks