Races · Senate · 2020 · Michigan

Senate · class II · open seat

Gary Peters vs John James

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Likely DD +6.5 forecast· 122 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
86% Peters (D)
14% James (R)
Win probability
Gary Peters86% (D)
John James14% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.5
80% CIR+5.5 → D+18.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.5 · 80% CI R+5.5 → D+18.5
Actual result D+1.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 86% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.5 (10th pctile) to D+18.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.5

80% CI: R +5.5 → D +18.5 · win prob 86%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	122
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+1.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
354045505560PETERS 48.7PETERS 47.3JAMES 44.1SEP '20OCT '20OCT '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 122 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Oct 31, 20	Research Co.+1For · Research Co	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	52 · 37
Oct 31, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	383 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 46
Oct 31, 20	Swayable+2For · Swayable	393 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.817 tracked	+2.5d lean	54 · 46
Oct 31, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	654 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	51 · 44
Oct 30, 20	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	1,736 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 43
Oct 29, 20	Emerson College+1	700 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	52 · 46
Oct 29, 20	Public Policy Polling	745 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	54 · 44
Oct 29, 20	Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	993 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	54 · 43
Oct 29, 20	CNN/SSRS+1For · CNN	907 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	52 · 40
Oct 28, 20	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	817 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	50 · 45
Oct 28, 20	RMG Research	800 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	50 · 41
Oct 27, 20	EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	47 · 42
Oct 27, 20	Kiaer ResearchFor · Kiaer Research	669 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 38
Oct 26, 20	Mitchell Research+1	759 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	52 · 43
Oct 25, 20	Tarrance Group	— · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	48 · 46
Oct 25, 20	Swayable+2For · Swayable	365 · LV	D-LEAN	D +7.817 tracked	+2.5d lean	58 · 42
Oct 25, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	856 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	49 · 41
Oct 25, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	652 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	50 · 44
Oct 24, 20	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	48 · 39
Oct 24, 20	ABC/Washington Post	789 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	52 · 46
Oct 24, 20	Tarrance Group	679 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	46
Oct 23, 20	Gravis Marketing+1For · Gravis Marketing	679 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	52 · 41
Oct 21, 20	Public Policy Polling	804 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	52 · 43
Oct 19, 20	Citizen Data	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +6.63 tracked	—	46 · 42
Oct 19, 20	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,032 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	49 · 41
Oct 19, 20	Reuters/IpsosFor · Reuters/Ipsos	686 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.66 tracked	+2.4d lean	50 · 45
Oct 19, 20	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	1,717 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	48 · 42
Oct 18, 20	Change Research/CNBC	718 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 45
Oct 18, 20	EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	45 · 39
Oct 17, 20	Mitchell Research+2For · RealClearPolitics	900 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.017 tracked	+0.6decoupled	49 · 43
Oct 17, 20	Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC	1,034 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 50
Oct 17, 20	Data for Progress+1	830 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 43
Oct 14, 20	HarrisX/The Hill+1For · The Hill	1,289 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	50 · 43
Oct 14, 20	Trafalgar Group+1	1,018 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47 · 48
Oct 12, 20	Reuters/IpsosFor · Reuters/Ipsos	620 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.66 tracked	+2.4d lean	52 · 44
Oct 12, 20	Trafalgar Group	1,018 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	48
Oct 11, 20	EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	45 · 39
Oct 10, 20	Siena College/NYT Upshot	614 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.09 tracked	0.0aligned	43 · 42
Oct 10, 20	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	1,710 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 40
Oct 8, 20	YouGov/CBS+1For · CBS News	1,181 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 44
Oct 7, 20	Baldwin Wallace University+2For · Baldwin Wallace University	1,134 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +8.54 tracked	+5.3d lean	48 · 42
Oct 6, 20	Emerson College+1	716 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	51 · 41
Oct 5, 20	Opinion Insight/American Action ForumFor · AAF	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 42
Oct 5, 20	Reuters/IpsosFor · Reuters/Ipsos	709 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.66 tracked	+2.4d lean	50 · 43
Oct 4, 20	Tarrance GroupFor · Politico	605 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	48 · 46
Oct 3, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	676 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	51 · 43
Oct 3, 20	Tarrance Group	601 · unknown	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	46
Oct 2, 20	Glengariff GroupFor · WDIV	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	45 · 40
Sep 30, 20	Public Policy Polling	746 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48 · 41
Sep 27, 20	Trafalgar Group (R)/Restoration PAC	1,042 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 47
Sep 24, 20	Trafalgar Group+1	1,047 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47 · 47
Sep 23, 20	Trafalgar Group	1,047 · unknown	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47
Sep 22, 20	Marist College/NBC+1For · NBC News	799 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 44
Sep 21, 20	Baldwin Wallace University+2For · Baldwin Wallace University	1,001 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +8.54 tracked	+5.3d lean	46 · 41
Sep 19, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	568 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 44
Sep 19, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,376 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	47 · 40
Sep 18, 20	Hart Research Associates	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	50 · 42
Sep 18, 20	Data for Progress+1	455 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 42
Sep 18, 20	Marketing Resource Group+1For · RealClearPolitics	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 40
Sep 16, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,451 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	48 · 40
Sep 15, 20	Ipsos/Reuters+1For · Ipsos/Reuters	637 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.010 tracked	+0.7aligned	49 · 43
Sep 14, 20	EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	45 · 41
Sep 14, 20	Morning Consult	1,376 · unknown	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	40
Sep 13, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	930 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	51 · 35
Sep 7, 20	Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group+1For · AARP	1,600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 41
Sep 5, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research/CNBC	876 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 46
Sep 2, 20	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	48 · 40
Sep 2, 20	Glengariff Group/Detroit News+1For · The Detroit News	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44 · 41
Sep 2, 20	Tarrance GroupFor · Politico	569 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	47 · 46
Sep 2, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	967 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	50 · 38
Sep 1, 20	Opinion Insight/American Action ForumFor · AAF	802 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 42
Aug 28, 20	Public Policy Polling	897 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 39
Aug 22, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research/CNBC	809 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 45
Aug 22, 20	Trafalgar Group+1	1,048 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.16 tracked	-4.1r lean	47 · 48
Aug 17, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	812 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 39
Aug 14, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	53 · 39
Aug 12, 20	Tarrance GroupFor · Politico	602 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +0.78 tracked	-3.6r lean	49 · 44
Aug 8, 20	Change Research/CNBC	413 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	48 · 45
Jul 29, 20	EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	50 · 40
Jul 28, 20	Public Policy Polling	876 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 39
Jul 25, 20	Change Research/CNBC	413 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	48 · 44
Jul 25, 20	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	1,320 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 35
Jul 23, 20	CNN/SSRS+1For · CNN	927 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.417 tracked	+3.0d lean	54 · 38
Jul 22, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	811 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	52 · 35
Jul 21, 20	Gravis Marketing+1For · Gravis Marketing	754 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.933 tracked	+0.1aligned	49 · 39
Jul 20, 20	Marketing Resource Group+1For · RealClearPolitics	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 34
Jul 19, 20	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	756 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	48 · 38
Jul 15, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	51 · 40
Jul 15, 20	Spry Strategies	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 37
Jul 11, 20	Change Research/CNBC	824 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	50 · 43
Jul 9, 20	Public Policy Polling	1,041 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	49 · 42
Jun 27, 20	Change Research/CNBCFor · Change Research	699 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.16 tracked	+1.1aligned	49 · 42
Jun 26, 20	Public Policy Polling	1,237 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	47 · 39
Jun 19, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	51 · 38
Jun 16, 20	NYT Upshot/Siena College	610 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.73 tracked	-2.4r lean	41 · 31
Jun 15, 20	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	826 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	50 · 32
Jun 14, 20	Marketing Resource Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	36 · 30
Jun 11, 20	American Greatness/TIPP	907 · RV	R-LEAN	—	—	47 · 35
Jun 6, 20	Kiaer Research	543 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 32
Jun 2, 20	EPIC-MRAFor · EPIC-MRA	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.89 tracked	+0.3aligned	51 · 36
May 29, 20	Public Policy Polling+1	1,582 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48 · 39
May 16, 20	Change Research/Crooked Media+1For · Crooked Media	3,070 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 43
May 4, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 36
Apr 28, 20	Public Policy Polling	1,270 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	46 · 37
Apr 20, 20	Fox News	801 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	46 · 36
Apr 17, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	46 · 37
Mar 31, 20	Public Policy Polling	1,019 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	45 · 38
Mar 31, 20	Spry Strategies	602 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 40
Mar 20, 20	Hodas & Associates/Restoration PACFor · Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 39
Mar 19, 20	Marketing Resource Group	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	42 · 35
Mar 6, 20	Firehouse/0ptimus	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	40 · 41
Feb 17, 20	Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University	845 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.454 tracked	+1.1aligned	45 · 39
Jan 19, 20	Baldwin Wallace University+2For · Baldwin Wallace University	1,023 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +8.54 tracked	+5.3d lean	42 · 32
Jan 6, 20	Glengariff Group	600 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.65 tracked	+1.5aligned	44 · 40
Nov 2, 19	Emerson College+1	1,051 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 40
Oct 15, 19	Hodas & Associates Restoration PAC	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 35
Oct 9, 19	Marketing Resource Group+1For · RealClearPolitics	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 40
Sep 25, 19	Target-Insyght/MIRS NewsFor · City Pulse	804 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	53 · 37
Sep 23, 19	Denno Research/Vanguard PA/PSC	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	40 · 39
May 9, 19	Denno Research/Vanguard PA	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	42
Apr 24, 19	Target Insyght	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	50 · 36
Mar 9, 19	Emerson College+1	743 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	44 · 43

· 122 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 16 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

16Peters · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Gary Peters16 · 100%
John James0 · 0%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DGary Peters16 endorsers

Most notable · Council for a Livable World

Other10

Organizations6

RJohn James0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DEMGary C. Peters0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31

John JamesS8MI00372 ↗

Receipts

$48.8M

Disburse

$47.7M

Cash on hand

$1.6M

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$18.5K

Top contributors

ENTREPRENEUR$166.2K

RDV CORPORATION$49.3K

LACKS ENTERPRISES$42.0K

AMSCOT FINANCIAL$22.4K

AMWAY$19.9K

Gary PetersS4MI00355 ↗

Receipts

$50.1M

Disburse

$49.8M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

Education$468.8K

Securities & investment$144.1K

Internet$127.6K

Computers / electronics$53.5K

Govt employees$52.0K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$363.6K

GOOGLE$127.6K

MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY$105.2K

BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD OF MICHIGAN$79.0K

GOLDMAN SACHS$77.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$49.2M

D side

$40.7M · 83%

R side

$8.4M · 17%

Top spender

SMP

For / against split

For Peters $4.9M

Against James $35.8M

Against Peters $1.6M

For James $6.8M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SMP	D	$35.7M	73%	against John James
BLACK PAC	D	$3.4M	7%	for Gary Peters
ESAFUND	R	$2.2M	4%	for John James
BETTER FUTURE MI FUND	R	$1.6M	3%	for John James
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)	R	$1.4M	3%	for John James
FOR OUR FUTURE	D	$1.2M	2%	for Gary Peters
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$892.2K	2%	for John James
NRSC	R	$792.5K	2%	against Gary Peters
VALOR AMERICA	R	$750.0K	2%	against Gary Peters
JDCA PAC	D	$102.2K	0%	for Gary Peters

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D2

Lean D3

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Oct 28

DDHQ

Likely D

Nov 2

538

Likely D

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified116 / 122deterministic

Polls flagged1needs review

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31

Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks