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Races · Senate · 2020 · Maine
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class II · open seat

Sara Gideon vs Susan Collins

← Massachusetts SenateMichigan Senate →
Lean DD +3.1 forecast· 38 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
70% Gideon (D)
30% Collins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.1 · 80% CI R+8.9 → D+15.1
Actual result R+8.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 70% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+15.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 70% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.1
80% CI: R +8.9 → D +15.1 · win prob 70%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used38
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+8.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055GIDEON 46.1GIDEON 45.1COLLINS 43.8COLLINS 41.5SAVAGE 4.8SWEET 44.0AUG '17APR '19NOV '20
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 38 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 1, 20Change Research+11,024 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy46 · 42
Oct 30, 20Emerson College+1611 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 46
Oct 26, 20SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,007 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 45
Oct 24, 20Colby CollegeFor · Google Docs879 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 43
Oct 5, 20Pan Atlantic Research+1600 · LVNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled47 · 40
Oct 3, 20Critical Insights466 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 43
Sep 27, 20Data for Progress+1718 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 41
Sep 22, 20Colby CollegeFor · Colby College847 · LVNEUTRAL——45 · 41
Sep 21, 20Moore Information600 · LVR-LEAN——42 · 42
Sep 20, 20Moore Information Group+1500 · unknownR-LEANR +10.04 tracked-6.5r lean—
Sep 19, 20Suffolk University+2For · The Boston Globe500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 41
Sep 15, 20Siena College/NYT Upshot663 · LVD-LEAND +5.09 tracked0.0aligned44 · 40
Sep 13, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University1,183 · LVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned54 · 42
Sep 6, 20Citizen Data [ failed verification ]600 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 41
Sep 5, 20Citizen Data600 · unknownNEUTRALD +6.63 tracked——
Sep 4, 20Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates800 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 43
Aug 13, 20Public Policy Polling571 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy49 · 44
Aug 8, 20Critical Insights453 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 38
Aug 2, 20Quinnipiac University+1For · Quinnipiac University807 · RVNEUTRALD +0.454 tracked+1.1aligned47 · 43
Aug 1, 20RMG Research500 · RVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean48 · 41
Aug 1, 20Data for Progress+1866 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 45
Jul 23, 20Colby College/SocialSphere+1For · Colby College888 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 39
Jul 22, 20Public Policy Polling561 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 42
Jul 2, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling1,022 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy46 · 42
Jun 23, 20Moore Information600 · RVR-LEAN——37 · 45
May 17, 20Victory Geek (D) [ failed verification ]512 · LVNEUTRAL——51 · 42
May 17, 20Victory Geek (D) [ failed verification ]512 · LVNEUTRAL——44 · 43
May 17, 20Victory Geek (D) [ failed verification ]512 · LVNEUTRAL——39
Mar 2, 20Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling872 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 43
Feb 12, 20Colby College/SocialSphereFor · Google Docs1,008 · LVNEUTRAL——43 · 42
Oct 12, 19Public Policy PollingFor · Public Policy Polling939 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy40
Jul 30, 19Fabrizio Ward600 · LVNEUTRAL——35 · 52
Jul 30, 19Fabrizio Ward600 · LVNEUTRAL——38
Jun 23, 19Gravis Marketing+1767 · RVD-LEAND +2.933 tracked+0.1aligned30 · 44
Mar 12, 19Pan Atlantic Research+1500 · LVNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled29 · 51
Mar 12, 19Pan Atlantic Research+1500 · LVNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled25
Oct 1, 18Public Policy Polling+2For · The Portland Press Herald— · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy42
Aug 28, 17Public Policy Polling501 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy51
· 38 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 6 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSusan Collins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSara Gideon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ILisa Savage0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEMSara I. Gideon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPSusan M. Collins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBetsy Sweet0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-21
Susan CollinsS6ME00159 ↗
Receipts
$27.9M
Disburse
$29.2M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$117.7K
Lawyers / law firms$30.5K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE GROUP$60.4K
RETIRED Z$48.4K
GOLDMAN SACHS$33.7K
SULLIVAN & CROMWELL LLP$30.5K
GENERAL DYNAMICS$25.6K
Sara GideonS0ME00111 ↗
Receipts
$75.6M
Disburse
$64.1M
Cash on hand
$11.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$418.6K
Education$238.6K
Computers / electronics$187.5K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$297.0K
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$84.5K
FACEBOOK$78.7K
MICROSOFT$71.6K
APPLE$62.7K
Lisa SavageS0ME00137 ↗
Receipts
$208.8K
Disburse
$197.3K
Cash on hand
$7.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.7K
Top contributors
NA$6.7K
UNIVERSITY OF MAINE$3.9K
HEALTH PHYSICIST$3.1K
BARD COLLEGE$2.8K
PORTSMOUTH NAVAL SHIPYARD$2.5K
Betsy SweetOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$758.0K
Disburse
$758.0K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$3.2K
Restaurants & drinking$2.8K
Education$2.8K
Top contributors
LPRS LLC$3.8K
BAR HARBOR COMMUNITY FARM$3.2K
GALYN'S RESTAURANT$2.8K
SMITH-MILLER + HAWKINSON ARCHITECTS$2.8K
QHT, INC.$2.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$47.6M
D side
$33.7M · 71%
R side
$13.9M · 29%
Top spender
1820 PAC
For / against split
For Gideon $6.3M
Against Collins $27.4M
Against Gideon $13.5M
For Collins $405.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
1820 PACR$11.6M24%against Sara Gideon
DSCCD$10.6M22%against Susan Collins
SMPD$9.9M21%against Susan Collins
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$4.7M10%for Sara Gideon
FAMILY FRIENDLY ACTION PACD$3.2M7%for Sara Gideon
PRIORITIES USA ACTIOND$2.1M4%against Susan Collins
NRSCR$1.3M3%against Sara Gideon
PROTECTING OUR VALUESD$1.1M2%against Susan Collins
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$560.3K1%against Sara Gideon
THE GOOD PARTYI$24.1K0%for Lisa Savage

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Tossup2
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 28
DDHQ
Lean D
Nov 2
538
Tossup
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified36 / 38deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks