Races · house · 2026 · CA
house · open seat

California house

← CA house CO house →
— · 36 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

model 97% D

Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +25.8
80% CI: D +8.3 → D +43.3 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election41
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +25.8
80% CI D +8.3 → D +43.3
CV MAE 13.66
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Unrated via none

In the news

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