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Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v15 · final pre-election call
66% Denney (D)
34% Gallagher (R)
Win probability
Audrey Denney66% (D)
James Gallagher34% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v15 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.7
80% CIR+21.8 → D+43.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.7 · 80% CI R+21.8 → D+43.2
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Momentum
Now—
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now—
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now—
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Verified
model 66% D
The poliagg-v15 ensemble forecasts D+10.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.8 (10th pctile) to D+43.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 66% chance of winning.
Forecast · poliagg-v15
Predicted final margin
D +10.7
80% CI: R +21.8 → D +43.2 · win prob 66%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used
0
Days to election
passed
Residual σ
25.34pt
Generated
6/1/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +28.0
80% CI R +7.3 → D +40.8
CV MAE 11.14
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAudrey Denney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJames Gallagher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IRichard Montgomery0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Demographic crosstabs
age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.