Races · house · 2026 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Wisconsin house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 97% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.3 (10th pctile) to R+7.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
24.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured24.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.2
80% CI: R +39.3 → R +7.1 · win prob 3%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +26.7
80% CI R +32.5 → R +19.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.0
80% CI R +4.8 → D +0.9
CV MAE 2.23
consensusMarket-implied
R +11.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 11¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?” | 11¢ | 87¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 11 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet11
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Michael Alfonso11 · 100%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMichael Alfonso11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025–present)
- Bryan Steil · WI-01 (2019–present)
- Derrick Van Orden · WI-03 (2023–present)
- Scott Fitzgerald · WI-05 (2021–present)
- Tony Wied · WI-08 (2024–present)
- Sean Duffy · secretary of transportation (2025–present) (candidate's father-in-law)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Turning Point Action
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-29Michael AlfonsoH6WI07223 ↗
Receipts
$914.4K
Disburse
$182.5K
Cash on hand
$731.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.0M
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$2.0M · 100%
Top spender
NORTHWOODS FUTURE PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTHWOODS FUTURE PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.0M | 100% | for Michael Alfonso |
| Turning Point PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.8K | 0% | for Michael Alfonso |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks