Republican primary · August 11, 2026
Wisconsin house Republican primary
Field of 4 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
91
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (24.3pp).
Forecast CI width81
24.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution81 / 100
Measured24.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Michael AlfonsoThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the eight U.S. representat…
2Kevin HermeningChallenger
3Jessi EbbenChallenger
4Niina BaumChallenger
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Alfonso | Ebben | Hermening | Baum | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | TIPP Insights | 301 · RV | 35 | 5 | 21 | 5 | +14 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetMichael Alfonso · 11Jessi Ebben · 5
RMichael Alfonso11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 10
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Brandon Gill · TX-26 (2025–present)
- Bryan Steil · WI-01 (2019–present)
- Derrick Van Orden · WI-03 (2023–present)
- Scott Fitzgerald · WI-05 (2021–present)
- Tony Wied · WI-08 (2024–present)
- Sean Duffy · secretary of transportation (2025–present) (candidate's father-in-law)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Turning Point Action
RJessi Ebben5 endorsers
Most notable · Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 4State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Anna Paulina Luna · FL-13 (2023–present)
- Eric Burlison · MO-07 (2023–present)
- Virginia Foxx · NC-05 (2005–present)
- David McIntosh · former IN-02 (1995–2001)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Club for Growth
RKevin Hermening0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNiina Baum0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-05-29Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-29
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks