Democratic primary · August 11, 2026
Wisconsin house Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 9d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
86
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (21.8pp).
Forecast CI width73
21.8pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured21.8pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Rebecca CookeWaitress nonprofit founder political consultant
2Emily Berge
3Rodney Rave
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Cooke | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16 | Impact Research | 471 · LV | 65 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 52 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetRebecca Cooke · 52
DRebecca Cooke52 endorsers
Most notable · Brad Pfaff · state senator from the 32nd district (2021–present) and nominee for this district in 2022
Elected officials26
Federal 25State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 26
- Brad Pfaff · state senator from the 32nd district (2021–present) and nominee for this district in 2022
- Adam Smith · WA-09 (1997–present)
- Don Beyer · VA-08 (2015–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Haley Stevens · MI-11 (2019–present)
- Jared Golden · ME-02 (2019–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Johnny Olszewski · MD-02 (2025–present)
- Linda Sanchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Lori Trahan · MA-03 (2019–present)
- Maxine Dexter · OR-03 (2025–present)
- Melanie Stansbury · NM-01 (2021–present)
- Nikki Budzinski · IL-13 (2023–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Sharice Davids · KS-03 (2019–present)
- Susie Lee · NV-03 (2019–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Annie Kuster · former NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026) (rejected by candidate)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Tammy Baldwin · Wisconsin (2013–present)
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- American Association for Justice
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Council for a Livable World
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Wisconsin State Conference
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades · District Councils 7 & 82
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- NewDem Action Fund
- Office and Professional Employees International Union
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Social Security Works
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1473
- WelcomePAC
- Wisconsin Laborers' District Council
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-06-20In the news
32 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
32 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles32
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.53 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.53 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 16%
Neutral 75%
R 9%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets16%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets9%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Hong Leads Latest Wisconsin Dem Gov’s Race Poll
W
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: One year later: Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil’s big, ugly bill remains deeply unpopular as Wisconsinites suffer
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Wisconsin Dem House Candidate Touts College Students 'From Minnesota' as Crucial 'Voting Bloc': 'Let's Re-Register Them, Like, That's Great'
W
WisDems: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: GOP nominee for Governor Tom Tiffany rates as one of the most conservative Wisconsin House members in modern history
N
Wisconsin First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Congress debates selling gas with 15 percent ethanol year-round permanently. Would it help Wisconsin farmers?
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Wisconsin Third Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Wisconsin Democrat Governor Candidates (and Rebecca Cooke) Should Turn in Their Pretend Moderate Cards -
W
Wisconsin Democrat Governor Candidates (and Rebecca Cooke) Should Turn in Their Pretend Moderate Cards -
N
Who Is Ahead in the Wisconsin Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements62 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage32 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks