Races · house · 2026 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 9d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 55% R · market gap 20pp
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+2.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+1.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.8 (10th pctile) to D+14.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 55% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 95/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 45%, market says 65% — 20pp gap (opposite winners). Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
95
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement53
10.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution53 / 100
Measured10.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +1.7
80% CI: R +17.8 → D +14.4 · win prob 45%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +8.6
80% CI R +12.3 → R +8.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +2.1
80% CI R +0.8 → D +4.9
CV MAE 2.20
consensusMarket-implied
D +3.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 66¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 16 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 66% · polls 50%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 25, 2026 · latest FM3 Research
Rebecca Cooke
VoteHub50.0%
VoteHub
Polling average50.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg50.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average50.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Derrick Van Orden
VoteHub46.0%
VoteHub
Polling average46.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 25, 2026): Rebecca Cooke 50.0%, Derrick Van Orden 46.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 26 | Impact Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 50 · 46 |
| Feb 16, 26 | Impact Research+2For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +10.7d lean | 49 · 48 |
| Oct 14, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 609 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 44 · 42 |
Endorsements · 56 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet52
4
Endorsements tracked
Rebecca Cooke52 · 93%
Derrick Van Orden4 · 7%
Total56
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRebecca Cooke52 endorsers
Most notable · Brad Pfaff · state senator from the 32nd district (2021–present) and nominee for this district in 2022
Elected officials26
Federal 25State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 26
- Brad Pfaff · state senator from the 32nd district (2021–present) and nominee for this district in 2022
- Adam Smith · WA-09 (1997–present)
- Don Beyer · VA-08 (2015–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Haley Stevens · MI-11 (2019–present)
- Jared Golden · ME-02 (2019–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Johnny Olszewski · MD-02 (2025–present)
- Linda Sanchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Lori Trahan · MA-03 (2019–present)
- Maxine Dexter · OR-03 (2025–present)
- Melanie Stansbury · NM-01 (2021–present)
- Nikki Budzinski · IL-13 (2023–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Scott Peters · CA-50 (2013–present)
- Sharice Davids · KS-03 (2019–present)
- Susie Lee · NV-03 (2019–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Ted Lieu · CA-36 (2015–present)
- Yassamin Ansari · AZ-03 (2025–present)
- Annie Kuster · former NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Elissa Slotkin · Michigan (2025–present)
- Eric Swalwell · former CA-14 (2013–2026) (rejected by candidate)
- Pete Buttigieg · former U.S. secretary of transportation (2021–2025)
- Tammy Baldwin · Wisconsin (2013–present)
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- American Association for Justice
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Blue Dog Coalition
- Council for a Livable World
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- EMILYs List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Wisconsin State Conference
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades · District Councils 7 & 82
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- NewDem Action Fund
- Office and Professional Employees International Union
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Social Security Works
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1473
- WelcomePAC
- Wisconsin Laborers' District Council
RDerrick Van Orden4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Republican Jewish Coalition
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$3.8M
Debts
$193.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rebecca CookeH4WI03169 ↗
Receipts
$6.5M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$4.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$232.5K
D side
$78.6K · 34%
R side
$153.9K · 66%
Top spender
LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $153.9K | 66% | for Derrick Van Orden |
| THE WISCO PROJECT PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $70.1K | 30% | against Derrick Van Orden |
| DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF WISCONSIN FEDERAL party · boosts D
| D | $4.1K | 2% | against Derrick Van Orden |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.9K | 1% | against Derrick Van Orden |
| FIELD TEAM 6, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.4K | 1% | against Derrick Van Orden |
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $104 | 0% | for Rebecca Cooke |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup4
Tossup · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
32 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
32 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles32
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.53 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift −0.53 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 16%
Neutral 75%
R 9%
25% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets16%
Neutral75%
R-leaning outlets9%
25% of outlets classified by editorial lean
M
Hong Leads Latest Wisconsin Dem Gov’s Race Poll
W
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: One year later: Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil’s big, ugly bill remains deeply unpopular as Wisconsinites suffer
F
Wisconsin Dem House Candidate Touts College Students 'From Minnesota' as Crucial 'Voting Bloc': 'Let's Re-Register Them, Like, That's Great'
W
WisDems: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: GOP nominee for Governor Tom Tiffany rates as one of the most conservative Wisconsin House members in modern history
N
Wisconsin First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Congress debates selling gas with 15 percent ethanol year-round permanently. Would it help Wisconsin farmers?
N
Wisconsin Third Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Wisconsin Democrat Governor Candidates (and Rebecca Cooke) Should Turn in Their Pretend Moderate Cards -
W
Wisconsin Democrat Governor Candidates (and Rebecca Cooke) Should Turn in Their Pretend Moderate Cards -
N
Who Is Ahead in the Wisconsin Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements62 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage32 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks