Races · house · 2026 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Mark Pocan vs Erik Olsen
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+33.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.4 (10th pctile) to D+49.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +33.5
80% CI: D +17.4 → D +49.6 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +40.2
80% CI D +34.5 → D +43.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.0
80% CI R +4.8 → D +0.9
CV MAE 2.23
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.9
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet12
Endorsements tracked
Mark Pocan12 · 100%
Erik Olsen0 · 0%
Total12
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMark Pocan12 endorsers
Most notable · Center for Freethought Equality
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- Center for Freethought Equality
- End Citizens United
- Equality PAC
- Human Rights Campaign
- J Street
- LGBTQ Victory Fund
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Sierra Club
- Track AIPAC
RErik Olsen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Mark PocanH2WI02124 ↗
Receipts
$643.1K
Disburse
$673.0K
Cash on hand
$972.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Erik Olsen
Receipts
$2.8K
Disburse
$3.4K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Mark Pocan |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks