Races · house · 2026 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 71% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+9.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.9 (10th pctile) to D+9.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 71% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.8
80% CI: R +22.9 → D +9.3 · win prob 29%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +4.9
80% CI R +14.6 → R +2.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +9.0
80% CI R +14.2 → R +3.8
CV MAE 4.06
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.3
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 41 · 50 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Mitchell Berman0 · 0%
Bryan Steil2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBryan Steil2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Log Cabin Republicans
DMitchell Berman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-08-06Bryan Steil
Receipts
$4.4M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$5.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mitchell Berman
Receipts
$426.7K
Disburse
$286.1K
Cash on hand
$140.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.0K
D side
$1.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-08-06
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks