Races · house · 2026 · Washington
house · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs John Braun
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
2 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary August 4, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 56% D · market gap 24pp
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+11.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.3 (10th pctile) to D+17.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 56% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 94/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 56%, market says 80% — 24pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
94
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement45
9.0pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution45 / 100
Measured9.0pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.8
80% CI: R +14.3 → D +17.9 · win prob 56%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +1.2
80% CI R +0.8 → D +8.9
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +7.2
80% CI R +9.7 → R +4.7
CV MAE 1.95
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 79¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 42 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 79% · polls 37%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Aug 1, 2025 · latest Voter Sciences
John Braun
VoteHub47.5%
VoteHub
Polling average47.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg38.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average38.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 9.2 pt above our average
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
VoteHub41.3%
VoteHub
Polling average41.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Aug 1, 2025): John Braun 47.5%, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 41.3%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 26 | co/efficient+1For · efficient (R) | 982 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 34 · 41 |
| Feb 4, 26 | Gravis Marketing+1For · Brent Hennrich for Washington | 752 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.933 tracked | +0.1aligned | 17 · 33 |
| Nov 11, 25 | Gravis MarketingFor · MGP challenger shows uncertainty around the 2026 primary | 752 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.933 tracked | +0.1aligned | 24 · 33 |
Endorsements · 11 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet11
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
John Braun11 · 100%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Braun11 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Michael Baumgartner · WA-05 (2025–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Lynda Wilson · former LD-17 (2017–2025)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- Clark County · Republican Party
- Lewis County · Republican Party
- Mainstream Republicans of Washington
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- Skamania County · Republican Party
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-23Marie Gluesenkamp PerezH2WA03217 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$3.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
John BraunH6WA03275 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$278.5K
Cash on hand
$956.3K
Debts
$600
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Brent Hennrich
Receipts
$167.1K
Disburse
$128.6K
Cash on hand
$39.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$165.0K
D side
$165.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
TOGETHER FOR WORKIN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGETHER FOR WORKING PEOPLE super pac · boosts D
| D | $110.0K | 67% | for Marie Gluesenkamp Perez |
| Together for Working People super pac · boosts D
| D | $55.0K | 33% | against John Braun |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified2 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-23
Endorsements30 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks